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Global Demographic Change and Economic Performance Applications of an Augmented GTAP-Dynamic

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  • Qun Shi
  • Rod Tyers

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Abstract

demographic transition have led to accelerated ageing of populations in developed countries and in several advanced developing countries. This paper introduces a global demographic model from which emerge the implications of these changes for population sizes, age distributions and gender compositions. From these results are inferred corresponding changes in labour force size and in patterns of consumption and saving which are then analysed using an augmented GTAP-Dynamic, in which regional households are disaggregated into four age groups and two genders. Demographic change is found to act most significantly through variations across age-gender groups in both labour force participation and savings behaviour, with secondary effects arising from variations in consumption preferences across these groups. As policies to control ageing in the developed countries, increased labour force participation by the aged and replacement migration are examined and shown to have very considerable effects on global economic performance.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics in its series ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics with number 2005-450.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:acb:cbeeco:2005-450

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  1. Ronald Lee, 2003. "The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 167-190, Fall.
  2. Tim Callen & Warwick J. McKibbin & Nicoletta Batini, 2006. "The Global Impact of Demographic Change," IMF Working Papers 06/9, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Kitamura, Yukinobu & Takayama, Noriyuki & Arita, Fumiko, 2001. "Household Savings and Wealth Distribution in Japan," Discussion Paper, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University 38, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  4. Jeffrey G. Williamson, 1997. "Growth, Distribution and Demography: Some Lessons from History," NBER Working Papers 6244, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Faruqee, Hamid & Muhleisen, Martin, 2003. "Population aging in Japan: demographic shock and fiscal sustainability," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 185-210, April.
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Cited by:
  1. Gehlhar, Mark J. & Dohlman, Erik, 2006. "Macroeconomic and Global Growth Influences on the U.S. Agricultural Trade Balance," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association) 21324, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

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