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Global Growth, Macroeconomic Change, and U.S. Agricultural Trade

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Author Info

  • Gehlhar, Mark J.
  • Dohlman, Erik
  • Brooks, Nora
  • Jerardo, Alberto
  • Vollrath, Thomas L.

Abstract

After a decade of uneven export growth and rapidly growing imports, U.S. agriculture has begun to reassert its position in global trade markets. Rising exports and signs of moderating demand for imports mark a departure from previous trends. This report places past trends and emerging developments in perspective by spotlighting the role of two specific factors that help steer U.S. agricultural trade patterns: global growth and shifts in foreign economic activity that affect U.S. exports, and macroeconomic factors underlying the growth of U.S. imports. Consistent with actual changes in the level and destination of U.S. exports, model simulations corroborate the contention that renewed export growth can be sustained by expanding incomes and growing food import demand in emerging economies. In contrast, the rapid growth of U.S. agricultural imports appears less related to domestic income growth than to changing consumer preferences and other, perhaps less sustainable, macroeconomic conditions that fostered the growth of U.S. current account deficits.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service in its series Economic Research Report with number 55963.

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Date of creation: Sep 2007
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Handle: RePEc:ags:uersrr:55963

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Related research

Keywords: agricultural trade; trade balance; income growth; economic development; population; macroeconomics; exchange rates; current account; growth projections.; Agricultural and Food Policy; Agricultural Finance; International Development; International Relations/Trade;

References

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  1. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2005. "The unsustainable U.S. current account position revisited," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Feb.
  2. Mario Marazzi & Nathan Sheets & Robert J. Vigfusson & Jon Faust & Joseph Gagnon & Jaime Marquez & Robert F. Martin & Trevor Reeve & John Rogers, 2005. "Exchange rate pass-through to U.S. import prices: some new evidence," International Finance Discussion Papers 833, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Warwick J. McKibbin, 2005. "Global Demographic Change And Japanese Macroeconomic Performance," CAMA Working Papers 2005-13, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  4. Thomas W. Hertel & Zhi Wang & Wusheng Yu, 1998. "Understanding the Determinants of Structural Change in World Food Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1051-1061.
  5. W. Jill Harrison & K.R. Pearson, 1994. "Computing Solutions for Large General Equilibrium Models Using GEMPACK," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers ip-64, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
  6. Campa, Jose M. & Goldberg, Linda S., 2002. "Exchange rate pass-through into import prices: A macro or micro phenomenon?," IESE Research Papers D/475, IESE Business School.
  7. Roe, Terry L. & Shane, Mathew & Somwaru, Agapi, 2006. "Exchange Rates, Foreign Income and U.S. Agriculture," Bulletins 12975, University of Minnesota, Economic Development Center.
  8. Dohlman, Erik & Osborne, Stefan & Lohmar, Bryan, 2003. "Dynamics of Agricultural Competitiveness: Policy Lessons From Abroad," Amber Waves, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, April.
  9. W. Max Corden, 2006. "Those Current Account Imbalances: A Sceptical View," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2006n13, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  10. Diego Valderrama, 2005. "What if foreign governments diversified their reserves?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jul29.
  11. Shane, Mathew & Roe, Terry L. & Langrock, Ines, 2004. "Exchange Rates, Foreign Income, and U.S. Agricultural Trade," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20042, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
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Cited by:
  1. Baek, Jungho & Koo, Won W. & Mulik, Kranti, 2009. "Exchange Rate Dynamics and the Bilateral Trade Balance: The Case of U.S. Agriculture," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 38(2), October.

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