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Exchange Rates, Foreign Income and U.S. Agriculture

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  • Roe, Terry L.
  • Shane, Mathew
  • Somwaru, Agapi

Abstract

This paper focuses on estimating the effects of trade partner income and real trade-weighted exchange rates on US agricultural exports. For the period 1970-2003, a one percent annual increase in trade partners’ income is found to increase total agricultural exports by about 1.6 percent while a one percent appreciation of the dollar relative to trade partner trade-weighted currencies decreases total agricultural exports by about 0.8 percent. We find these effects also carry over to 12 commodity subcategories, although the effects are conditioned by differences between bulk and high value commodities, and differences in the export demand from high compared to low income countries. We also find that the negative effect of exchange rate appreciation on exports often dominates the positive effect from income growth.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Minnesota, Economic Development Center in its series Bulletins with number 12975.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ags:umedbu:12975

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Keywords: Exchange rates; U.S. agricultural trade; U.S. agricultural commodity exports; U.S. agricultural export prices; foreign income; International Relations/Trade; F10; F14; Q17;

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References

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  1. Obstfeld, Maurice, 2002. "Exchange Rates and Adjustment: Perspectives from the New Open- Economy Macroeconomics," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 20(S1), pages 23-46, December.
  2. Orden, David, 1986. "Agriculture, trade, and macroeconomics: The U.S. case," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 27-51.
  3. V.V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 1998. "Can sticky price models generate volatile and persistent real exchange rates?," Staff Report 223, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  4. Ostry, Jonathan D. & Rose, Andrew K., 1992. "An empirical evaluation of the macroeconomic effects of tarrifs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 63-79, February.
  5. repec:jaa:jagape:v:36:y:2004:i:1:p:1-22 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Diao, Xinshen & Roe, Terry L. & Somwaru, Agapi, 1999. "What Is The Cause Of Growth In Regional Trade: Trade Liberalization Or Rta'S? The Case Of Agriculture," Working Papers 14605, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
  7. Keblowski, Piotr & Welfe, Aleksander, 2004. "The ADF-KPSS test of the joint confirmation hypothesis of unit autoregressive root," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 257-263, November.
  8. Babula, Ronald A. & Bessler, David A. & Payne, Warren S., 2004. "Dynamic Relationships Among U.S. Wheat-Related Markets: Applying Directed Acyclic Graphs to a Time Series Model," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 36(01), April.
  9. Dale W. Jorgenson, 2001. "Information Technology and the U.S. Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 1-32, March.
  10. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
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Cited by:
  1. Durmaz, Nazif & Thompson, Henry, 2010. "Textile Producer Cotton Imports and the Exchange Rate," MPRA Paper 21831, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Gehlhar, Mark J. & Dohlman, Erik & Brooks, Nora & Jerardo, Alberto & Vollrath, Thomas L., 2007. "Global Growth, Macroeconomic Change, and U.S. Agricultural Trade," Economic Research Report 55963, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.

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