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The Influence of Macroeconomic Variables on the Hungarian Agriculture

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  • Bakucs, Lajos Zoltan
  • Ferto, Imre

Abstract

This paper focus on the time adjustment paths of the exchange rate and prices in response to unanticipated monetary shocks following model developed by Saghaian et al. (2002). We employ Johansen's cointegration test along with a vector error correction model to investigate whether agricultural prices overshoot in a transition economy. The empirical results indicate that agricultural prices adjust faster than industrial prices to innovations in the money supply, affecting relative prices in the short run, but strict long-run money neutrality does not hold.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association) in its series 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI with number 19232.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea05:19232

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Keywords: agricultural prices; exchange rates; monetary shocks; overshooting; transition economy; Demand and Price Analysis; C32; E51; P22; Q11;

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  1. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
  2. Ardeni, Pier-Giorgio & Rausser, Gordon C., 1990. "Alternative subsidy reduction paths : the role of fiscal and monetary policy linkages," CUDARE Working Paper Series 566, University of California at Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Policy.
  3. Ardeni, Pier Giorgio & Freebairn, John, 2002. "The macroeconomics of agriculture," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, in: B. L. Gardner & G. C. Rausser (ed.), Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 28, pages 1455-1485 Elsevier.
  4. J. S. Taylor & John Spriggs, 1989. "Effects of the Monetary Macro-economy on Canadian Agricultural Prices," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 22(2), pages 278-89, May.
  5. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
  6. Shih-wen Hu & Vey Wang, 1996. "Commodity Price Dynamics and Anticipated Shocks," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(4), pages 982-990.
  7. Zanias, George P, 1998. "Inflation, Agricultural Prices and Economic Convergence in Greece," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 25(1), pages 19-29.
  8. Brooks, Karen & Nash, John, 2002. "The rural sector in transition economies," Handbook of Agricultural Economics, in: B. L. Gardner & G. C. Rausser (ed.), Handbook of Agricultural Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 30, pages 1547-1592 Elsevier.
  9. Peng, Xuehua & Marchant, Mary A. & Reed, Michael R., 2004. "Identifying Monetary Impacts On Food Prices In China: A Vec Model Approach," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20315, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  10. Sayed H. Saghaian & Michael R. Reed & Mary A. Marchant, 2002. "Monetary Impacts and Overshooting of Agricultural Prices in an Open Economy," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 84(1), pages 90-103.
  11. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  12. Jeffrey H. Dorfman & William D. Lastrapes, 1996. "The Dynamic Responses of Crop and Livestock Prices to Money-Supply Shocks: A Bayesian Analysis Using Long-Run Identifying Restrictions," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(3), pages 530-541.
  13. Bordo, Michael David, 1980. "The Effects of Monetary Change on Relative Commodity Prices and the Role of Long-Term Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(6), pages 1088-1109, December.
  14. Grennes, Thomas & Lapp, John S., 1986. "Neutrality of inflation in the agricultural sector," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 231-243, June.
  15. Scott Rozelle & Johan F.M. Swinnen, 2004. "Success and Failure of Reform: Insights from the Transition of Agriculture," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 42(2), pages 404-456, June.
  16. Orden, David, 1986. "Agriculture, trade, and macroeconomics: The U.S. case," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 27-51.
  17. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  18. Nedka Ivanova & Philip Dawson & John Lingard, 2003. "Macroeconomic Impacts on Bulgarian Agriculture during Transition," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(7), pages 817-823.
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