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Global Growth and Distribution: Are China and India Reshaping the World?

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  • Bussolo, Maurizio
  • De Hoyos, Rafael E.
  • Medvedev, Denis
  • van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique

Abstract

Over the past 20 years, aggregate measures of global inequality have changed little even if significant structural changes have been observed. High growth rates of China and India lifted millions out of poverty, while the stagnation in many African countries caused them to fall behind. Using the World Bank?s LINKAGE global general equilibrium model and the newly developed Global Income Distribution Dynamics (GIDD) tool, this paper assesses the distribution and poverty effects of a scenario where these trends continue in the future. Even by anticipating a deceleration, growth in China and India is a key force behind the expected convergence of per capita incomes at the global level. Millions of Chinese and Indian consumers will enter into a rapidly emerging global middle class?a group of people who can afford, and demand access to, the standards of living previously reserved mainly for the residents of developed countries. Notwithstanding these positive developments, fast growth is often characterized by high urbanization and growing demand for skills, both of which result in a widening of income distribution within countries. These opposing distributional effects highlight the importance of analysing global disparities by taking into account?as the GIDD does?income dynamics between and within countries.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER) in its series Working Paper Series with number RP2008/29.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:rp2008-29

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Keywords: China; India; global income distribution; middle class;

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References

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Cited by:
  1. John COCKBURN & Jean-Yves DUCLOS & Agnès ZABSONRÉ, 2011. "Is the value of humanity increasing? A critical-level enquiry," Working Papers I13, FERDI.
  2. Clovis Freire & Alberto Isgut, . "High Food and Oil Prices and Their Impact on the Achievement of MDG 1 in Asia and the Pacific," MPDD Working Paper Series WP/11/18, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).
  3. Jing Wang & Dana Medianu & John Whalley, 2011. "The Contribution of China, India and Brazil to Narrowing North-South Differences in GDP/capita, World Trade Shares, and Market Capitalization," NBER Working Papers 17681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Bussolo, Maurizio & De Hoyos, Rafael & Medvedev, Denis, 2009. "Global income distribution and poverty in the absence of agricultural distortions," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4849, The World Bank.
  5. van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique & Osorio Rodarte, Israel & Burns, Andrew & Baffes, John, 2009. "How to feed the world in 2050: Macroeconomic environment, commodity markets - A longer temr outlook," MPRA Paper 19019, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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