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Demographic Alternatives for Aging Industrial Countries: Increased Total Fertility Rate, Labor Force Participation, or Immigration

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  • Holzmann, Robert

    ()
    (University of Malaya)

Abstract

The paper investigates the demographic alternatives for dealing with the projected population aging and low or negative growth of the population and labor force in the North. Without further immigration, the total labor force in Europe and Russia, the high-income countries of East Asia and the Pacific, China, and, to a lesser extent, North America is projected to be reduced by 29 million by 2025 and by 244 million by 2050. In contrast, the labor force in the South is projected to add some 1.55 billion, predominantly in South and Central Asia and in Sub-Saharan Africa. The demographic policy scenarios to deal with the projected shrinking of the labor force in the North include moving the total fertility rate back to replacement levels, increasing labor force participation of the existing population through a variety of measures, and filling the demographic gaps through enhanced immigration. The estimations indicate that each of these policy scenarios may partially or even fully compensate for the projected labor force gap by 2050. But a review of the policy measures to make these demographic scenarios happen also suggests that governments may not be able to initiate or accommodate the required change.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 1885.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp1885

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Keywords: fertility rate; aging; demographic policy; labor force; migration;

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References

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  1. Anders Björklund, 2006. "Does family policy affect fertility?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 3-24, February.
  2. Warwick J. McKibbin, 2006. "The Global Macroeconomic Consequences of a Demographic Transition," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 5(1), pages 92-134, January.
  3. Sinn, Hans-Werner, 2004. "The pay-as-you-go pension system as fertility insurance and an enforcement device," Munich Reprints in Economics, University of Munich, Department of Economics 19606, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  4. Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 467.
  5. Commander, Simon & Kangasniemi, Mari & Winters, L. Alan, 2003. "The Brain Drain: Curse or Boon?," IZA Discussion Papers 809, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  6. Stephen Drinkwater & Paul Levine & Emanuela Lotti & Joseph Pearlman, 2003. "The Economic Impact of Migration: A Survey," School of Economics Discussion Papers, School of Economics, University of Surrey 0103, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  7. Holzmann, Robert & Munz, Rainer, 2004. "Challenges and opportunities of international migration for the EU, its member states, neighboring countries, and regions : a Policy Note," Social Protection Discussion Papers 30160, The World Bank.
  8. Volker Meier & Matthias Wrede, 2005. "Pension, Fertility, and Education," CESifo Working Paper Series 1521, CESifo Group Munich.
  9. David Card, 2004. "Is the New Immigration Really So Bad?," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 0402, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
  10. Robert Holzmann, 2000. "Can Investments in Emerging Markets Help to Solve the Aging Problem?," CESifo Working Paper Series 304, CESifo Group Munich.
  11. Tito Boeri & Herbert Brücker, 2005. "Why are Europeans so tough on migrants?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 20(44), pages 629-703, October.
  12. Samuel Munzele Maimbo & Dilip Ratha, 2005. "Remittances: Development Impact and Future Prospects," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 7339, August.
  13. Robert Holzmann & Richard Hinz, 2005. "Old Age Income Support in the 21st century: An International Perspective on Pension Systems and Reform," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 7336, August.
  14. Joaquim Oliveira Martins & Frédéric Gonand & Pablo Antolín & Christine de la Maisonneuve & Kwang-Yeol Yoo, 2005. "The Impact of Ageing on Demand, Factor Markets and Growth," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 420, OECD Publishing.
  15. Holzmann, Robert & Koettl, Johannes & Chernetsky, Taras, 2005. "Portability regimes of pension and health care benefits for international migrants: an analysis of issues and good practices," Social Protection Discussion Papers 32750, The World Bank.
  16. Isaac Ehrlich & Jinyoung Kim, 2005. "Social Security, Demographic Trends, and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence from the International Experience," NBER Working Papers 11121, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Thomas K. Bauer, & Deborah A. Cobb-Clark & Vincent Hildebrand & Mathias Sinning, 2007. "A Comparative Analysis of the Nativity Wealth Gap," Ruhr Economic Papers, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen 0006, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  2. Mukesh Chawla & Gordon Betcherman & Arup Banerji, 2007. "From Red to Gray : The "Third Transition" of Aging Populations in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6741, August.
  3. repec:pdn:wpaper:9 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Thomas Gries & Stefan Jungblut & Tim Krieger & Henning Meier, 2009. "Statutory Retirement Age and Lifelong Learning," Working Papers CIE 9, University of Paderborn, CIE Center for International Economics.
  5. Jacques Poot, 2007. "Demographic Change and Regional Competitiveness: The Effects of Immigration and Ageing," Population Studies Centre Discussion Papers, University of Waikato, Population Studies Centre dp-64, University of Waikato, Population Studies Centre.
  6. McKenzie, David J., 2006. "A profile of the world's young developing country migrants," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4021, The World Bank.
  7. Mathä, Thomas Y. & Porpiglia, Alessandro & Sierminska, Eva, 2011. "The immigrant/native wealth gap in Germany, Italy and Luxembourg," Working Paper Series, European Central Bank 1302, European Central Bank.
  8. Lamin Leigh, 2006. "Hong Kong Special Administrative Region," IMF Working Papers 06/87, International Monetary Fund.

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