Financing consumption in an aging Japan: The role of foreign capital inflows and immigration
AbstractWe project the impact of demographic change on Japanese capital flows by simulating the impact of population aging on Japanese saving and investment rates. As aging depresses saving rates, in our baseline projections, we show that by 2015, foreign capital inflows will comprise about 15 percent of Japanese output. A distinguishing feature of this paper is that we compare the capital flows that occur without immigration to the capital inflows that would occur with immigration of 400,000 people annually. With the larger labor force from immigration and the larger induced capital accumulation, output will be 22 percent higher by 2020, and 50 percent higher by 2040. The higher output means that less capital needs to be imported; by 2015, Japan will be importing only 8 percent of its output.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of the Japanese and International Economies.
Volume (Year): 18 (2004)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622903
Other versions of this item:
- Robert Dekle, 2004. "Financing Consumption in an Aging Japan: The Role of Foreign Capital Inflows in Immigration," NBER Working Papers 10781, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business
- F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
- F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Tim Callen & Warwick J. McKibbin & Nicoletta Batini, 2006. "The Global Impact of Demographic Change," IMF Working Papers 06/9, International Monetary Fund.
- Barro, Robert J, 1979.
"On the Determination of the Public Debt,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-71, October.
- Horioka, Charles Yuji, 1992.
"Future trends in Japan's saving rate and the implications thereof for Japan's external imbalance,"
Japan and the World Economy,
Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 307-330, April.
- Yuji Horioka, C., 1990. "Future Trends in Japan's Saving Rate and the Implications thereof for Japan's External Imbalance," ISER Discussion Paper 0239, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
- Horioka, Charles Yuji, 1990. "Why is Japan's household saving rate so high? A literature survey," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 49-92, March.
- Hayashi, Fumio, 1982.
"Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A Neoclassical Interpretation,"
Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 213-24, January.
- Fumio Hayashi, 1981. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average a : A Neoclassical Interpretation," Discussion Papers 457, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
- Horioka, C.Y., 1993.
"Is Japan's Household Saving Rate Really High?,"
ISER Discussion Paper
0308, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
- Cutler, D.M. & Poterba, J.M. & Sheiner, L.M. & Summers, L.H., 1990.
"An Aging Society: Opportunity Or Challenge,"
553, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- repec:fth:harver:1490 is not listed on IDEAS
- Yukinobu Kitamura & Noriyuki Takayama, 1999. "Lessons from Generational Accounting in Japan," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 171-175, May.
- Robert J. Barro, 2012.
"Inflation and Economic Growth,"
CEMA Working Papers
568, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, January.
- Paul R. Masson & Ralph W. Tryon, 1990.
"Macroeconomic Effects Of Projected Population Aging In Industrial Countries,"
IMF Working Papers
90/5, International Monetary Fund.
- Paul R. Masson & Ralph W. Tryon, 1990. "Macroeconomic Effects of Projected Population Aging in Industrial Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(3), pages 453-485, September.
- Hiroko Ishii & Erika Wada, 1998. "Local Government Spending: Solving the Mystery of Japanese Fiscal Packages," Working Paper Series WP98-5, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
- Magnus Blomström & Jennifer Corbett & Fumio Hayashi & Anil Kashyap, 2003. "Structural Impediments to Growth in Japan," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number blom03-1.
- Takero Doi & Takeo Hoshi, 2002.
"Paying for the FILP,"
NBER Working Papers
9385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Fumio Hayashi, 1989. "Is Japan's saving rate high?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 3-9.
- Robert Dekle & Lawrence H. Summers, 1991. "Japan's High Saving Rate Reaffirmed," NBER Working Papers 3690, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alan J. Auerbach & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Robert Hagemann & Giuseppe Nicoletti, 1989. "The Dynamics of an Aging Population: The Case of Four OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 2797, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sheetal K. Chand & Albert Jaeger, 1996. "Aging Populations and Public Pension Schemes," IMF Occasional Papers 147, International Monetary Fund.
- Richard H. Clarida, 1993. "International Capital Mobility, Public Investment and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 4506, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Horioka, C.Y., 1991. "Saving in Japan," ISER Discussion Paper 0248, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
- Horioka, C.Y., 1989. "The Determinants Of Japan'S Saving Rate: The Impact Of The Age Structure Of The Population And Other Factors," ISER Discussion Paper 0189, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
- Yamamura, Eiji, 2011. "Frequency of contact with foreigners in a homogeneous society: perceived consequences of foreigner increases," MPRA Paper 33852, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Shimasawa, Manabu & Oguro, Kazumasa, 2010. "Impact of immigration on the Japanese economy: A multi-country simulation model," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 586-602, December.
- Kim, Soyoung & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2008. "Demographic changes, saving, and current account: An analysis based on a panel VAR model," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 236-256, March.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.