IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jjieco/v62y2021ics0889158321000472.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Immigration policy and demographic dynamics: Welfare analysis of an aging Japan

Author

Listed:
  • Okamoto, Akira

Abstract

This study quantified the effects of immigration policies in an aging and depopulating Japan. Under a constant total number of immigrants, it focused on the optimal period for an immigration policy that maximized per-capita utility. Simulation results, based on an extended lifecycle simulation model with endogenous fertility, showed that a longer period immigration policy increased the future population and enhanced long-run economic growth. Conversely, a shorter period immigration policy enhanced economic growth in earlier years but less so in the long run. This study found that an optimal duration for an immigration policy, under the standard parameter settings for Japan, was nine years; this finding was derived through reconciling the merits and demerits between shorter and longer period immigration policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Okamoto, Akira, 2021. "Immigration policy and demographic dynamics: Welfare analysis of an aging Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jjieco:v:62:y:2021:i:c:s0889158321000472
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2021.101168
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0889158321000472
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jjie.2021.101168?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Timothy Miller & Ronald Lee, 2000. "Immigration, Social Security, and Broader Fiscal Impacts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 350-354, May.
    2. Fumio Hayashi & Edward C. Prescott, 2004. "The 1990s in Japan: a lost decade," Chapters, in: Paolo Onofri (ed.), The Economics of an Ageing Population, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Dekle, Robert, 2004. "Financing consumption in an aging Japan: The role of foreign capital inflows and immigration," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 506-527, December.
    4. Alan J. Auerbach & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1983. "National Savings, Economic Welfare, and the Structure of Taxation," NBER Chapters, in: Behavioral Simulation Methods in Tax Policy Analysis, pages 459-498, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Shimasawa, Manabu & Oguro, Kazumasa, 2010. "Impact of immigration on the Japanese economy: A multi-country simulation model," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 586-602, December.
    6. R. Anton Braun & Daisuke Ikeda & Douglas H. Joines, 2009. "The Saving Rate In Japan: Why It Has Fallen And Why It Will Remain Low," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(1), pages 291-321, February.
    7. Kjetil Storesletten, 2003. "Fiscal Implications of Immigration—A Net Present Value Calculation," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 105(3), pages 487-506, September.
    8. Okamoto, Akira, 2005. "Simulating progressive expenditure taxation in an aging Japan," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 309-325, April.
    9. Kazumasa Oguro & Junichiro Takahata, 2013. "Child Benefits and Macroeconomic Simulation Analyses : An Overlapping-Generations Model with Endogenous Fertility," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 9(4), pages 633-660, September.
    10. Selahattin İmrohoroğlu & Sagiri Kitao & Tomoaki Yamada, 2017. "Can Guest Workers Solve Japan'S Fiscal Problems?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(3), pages 1287-1307, July.
    11. Toshihiro Ihori & Ryuta Ray Kato & Masumi Kawade & Shun-ichiro Bessho, 2005. "Public Debt and Economic Growth in an Aging Japan," CARF F-Series CARF-F-046, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    12. Kato, Ryuta, 1998. "Transition to an Aging Japan: Public Pension, Savings, and Capital Taxation," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 204-231, September.
    13. Alan J. Auerbach & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Robert Hagemann & Giuseppe Nicoletti, 1989. "The Dynamics of an Aging Population: The Case of Four OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 2797, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Kitao, Sagiri & Mikoshiba, Minamo, 2020. "Females, the elderly, and also males: Demographic aging and macroeconomy in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    15. van Groezen, Bas & Leers, Theo & Meijdam, Lex, 2003. "Social security and endogenous fertility: pensions and child allowances as siamese twins," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 233-251, February.
    16. Burkhard Heer & Alfred Maußner, 2024. "Dynamic General Equilibrium Modeling," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, edition 3, number 978-3-031-51681-8, August.
    17. Kjetil Storesletten, 2000. "Sustaining Fiscal Policy through Immigration," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(2), pages 300-323, April.
    18. Akira Okamoto, 2010. "Pension Reform in Japan," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 179-208, September.
    19. David Altig, 2001. "Simulating Fundamental Tax Reform in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 574-595, June.
    20. Toshihiro Ihori, Ryuta Ray Kato, Masumi Kawade, Shun-ichiro Bessho, 2011. "The Reform Of The Public Health Insurance And Economic Growth Of Japan," Asia Pacific Economic Papers 392, Australia-Japan Research Centre, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    21. Auerbach, Alan J & Kotlikoff, Laurence J, 1987. "Evaluating Fiscal Policy with a Dynamic Simulation Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 49-55, May.
    22. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2004. "The Role of Immigration in Dealing with the Developed World's Demographic Transition," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 60(3), pages 296-324, September.
    23. Tomiura, Eiichi & Ito, Banri & Mukunoki, Hiroshi & Wakasugi, Ryuhei, 2019. "Individual characteristics, behavioral biases, and attitudes toward foreign workers: Evidence from a survey in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 1-13.
    24. Ihori, Toshihiro & Kato, Ryuta Ray & Kawade, Masumi & Bessho, Shun-ichiro, 2011. "Health insurance reform and economic growth: Simulation analysis in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 227-239.
    25. Goto, Junichi, 1998. "The impact of migrant workers on the Japanese economy: Trickle vs. flood," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 63-83, January.
    26. Alan J. Auerbach & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Robert P. Hagemann & Giuseppe Nicoletti, 1989. "The Economic Dynamics of an Ageing Population: The Case of Four OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 62, OECD Publishing.
    27. Okubo, Toshihiro, 2021. "Public preferences on immigration in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    28. Shinichi Nishiyama & Kent Smetters, 2005. "Consumption Taxes and Economic Efficiency with Idiosyncratic Wage Shocks," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(5), pages 1088-1115, October.
    29. Akira Okamoto, 2013. "Welfare Analysis of Pension Reforms in an Ageing Japan," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 64(4), pages 452-483, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Okamoto, Akira, 2022. "Intergenerational earnings mobility and demographic dynamics: Welfare analysis of an aging Japan," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 76-104.
    2. Jinno, Masatoshi & Yasuoka, Masaya, 2022. "The effects of admittingi Immigrants: a look at Japan’s school and pension systems," MPRA Paper 115182, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Kato, Ryuta Ray, 2022. "Population aging and labor mobility in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Okamoto, Akira, 2022. "Intergenerational earnings mobility and demographic dynamics: Welfare analysis of an aging Japan," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 76-104.
    2. Akira Okamoto, 2013. "Simulating Public Pension Reforms in an Aging Japan: Welfare Analysis with LSRA Transfers," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 9(4), pages 597-632, September.
    3. Akira Okamoto, 2013. "Welfare Analysis of Pension Reforms in an Ageing Japan," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 64(4), pages 452-483, December.
    4. Okamoto Akira, 2020. "Childcare Allowances and Public Pensions: Welfare and Demographic Effects in an Aging Japan," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 20(2), pages 1-25, April.
    5. Shimasawa, Manabu & Oguro, Kazumasa, 2010. "Impact of immigration on the Japanese economy: A multi-country simulation model," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 586-602, December.
    6. Kato, Ryuta Ray, 2022. "Population aging and labor mobility in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    7. Yuan-Ho Hsu & Hiroshi Yoshida & Fengming Chen, 2022. "The Impacts of Population Aging on China’s Economy," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 14(1), pages 105-130, January.
    8. Selahattin İmrohoroğlu & Sagiri Kitao & Tomoaki Yamada, 2017. "Can Guest Workers Solve Japan'S Fiscal Problems?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(3), pages 1287-1307, July.
    9. Fehr, Hans & Jokisch, Sabine & Kallweit, Manuel & Kindermann, Fabian & Kotlikoff, Laurence J., 2013. "Generational Policy and Aging in Closed and Open Dynamic General Equilibrium Models," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1719-1800, Elsevier.
    10. Ichiro Muto & Takemasa Oda & Nao Sudo, 2016. "Macroeconomic Impact of Population Aging in Japan: A Perspective from an Overlapping Generations Model," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(3), pages 408-442, August.
    11. Kitao, Sagiri, 2015. "Fiscal cost of demographic transition in Japan," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 37-58.
    12. Sagiri Kitao, 2017. "When do we Start? Pension reform in ageing Japan," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 68(1), pages 26-47, March.
    13. Axel Börsch‐Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2006. "Ageing, Pension Reform and Capital Flows: A Multi‐Country Simulation Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 625-658, November.
    14. Scott C. Bradford & Kerk L. Phillips, 2021. "Dynamic effects of changes to Japanese immigration policy," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 3-22, February.
    15. Anthony Edo & Lionel Ragot & Hillel Rapoport & Sulin Sardoschau & Andreas Steinmayr & Arthur Sweetman, 2020. "An introduction to the economics of immigration in OECD countries," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(4), pages 1365-1403, November.
    16. Isaac Dadson & Ryuta Ray Kato, 2015. "Remittances and the Redistributive Tax Policy in Ghana: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach," Working Papers EMS_2015_05, Research Institute, International University of Japan.
    17. Seth G. Benzell & Eugene Goryunov & Maria Kazakova & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Guillermo LaGarda & Kristina Nesterova & Andrey Zubarev, 2015. "Simulating Russia’s and Other Large Economies’ Challenging and Interconnected Transitions," NBER Working Papers 21269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Isaac Dadson & Ryuta Ray Kato, 2015. "Remittances and the Brain Drain in Ghana: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach," Working Papers EMS_2015_04, Research Institute, International University of Japan.
    19. Jiang, Yunyun & Zhao, Tianhao & Zheng, Haitao, 2021. "Population aging and its effects on the gap of urban public health insurance in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    20. Zaiceva, A. & Zimmermann, K.F., 2016. "Migration and the Demographic Shift," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 119-177, Elsevier.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Immigration policy; Aging population; Welfare analysis; Dynamic overlapping generations model; Simulation analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jjieco:v:62:y:2021:i:c:s0889158321000472. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622903 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.