Health Insurance Reform and Economic Growth: Simulation Analysis in Japan
AbstractThis paper evaluates the drastic reforms of Japanese public health insurance initiated in 2006. We employ a computable general equilibrium framework to numerically examine the reforms for an aging Japan in the dynamic context of overlapping generations. Our simulation produced the following results: First, an increase in the co-payment rate, a prominent feature of the 2006 reform, would promote economic growth and welfare by encouraging private saving. Second, the ex-post moral hazard behavior following the increase in co-payment rates, however, reduces economic growth. Third, Japanfs trend of increasing the future public health insurance benefits can mainly be explained by its aging population, and increasing the co-payment rate does little to reduce future payments of public health insurance benefits. Fourth, the effect on future economic burdens of reducing medical costs through efficiencies in public health insurance, emphasis on preventive medical care, or technological progress in the medical field is small. Finally, a policy of maintaining public health insurance at a fixed percentage of GDP will require reducing public health insurance benefits, perhaps up to 45% by 2050. Such a policy also reduces economic growth until approximately 2035. Our simulation indicates that the reform does not significantly reduce future public health insurance benefits, but it can enhance economic growth and welfare by encouraging private saving.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Research Institute, International University of Japan in its series Working Papers with number EMS_2011_17.
Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2011
Date of revision:
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More information through EDIRC
public health insurance; Japan; national medical expenditure; economic growth; aging population; dynamic CGE model;
Other versions of this item:
- Ihori, Toshihiro & Kato, Ryuta Ray & Kawade, Masumi & Bessho, Shun-ichiro, 2011. "Health insurance reform and economic growth: Simulation analysis in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 227-239.
- C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
- D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
- E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
- H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
- H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
- H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
- I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
- O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-10-15 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2011-10-15 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-HEA-2011-10-15 (Health Economics)
- NEP-IAS-2011-10-15 (Insurance Economics)
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