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Seigniorage and Japanese fiscal sustainability: Simulation analysis using an overlapping generations model

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  • Hagiwara, Reona

Abstract

This study examines two tax policies for achieving fiscal sustainability in Japan: (i) an increase in consumption tax and (ii) consumption tax hike combined with inflation. To evaluate these policies from both fiscal and welfare perspectives, I develop a multi-period overlapping generations model with money. The results reveal that, compared to the first policy, the second policy can substantially delay the timing of and curb the increase in consumption tax through seigniorage revenue. This suggests seigniorage could be a useful tool for the Japanese government in resolving its fiscal problems. In addition, in an aging Japan, the second policy can enhance future generations’ utility. Because inflation reduces money holdings and utility of the elderly, policies that cause inflation in the present but reduce it in the future improve the utility of future generations. From a social welfare viewpoint, such policies are desirable in a government that has foresight.

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  • Hagiwara, Reona, 2020. "Seigniorage and Japanese fiscal sustainability: Simulation analysis using an overlapping generations model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 340-356.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:84:y:2020:i:c:p:340-356
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2019.04.024
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    Cited by:

    1. Morita, Hiroshi, 2022. "On the relationship between fiscal multipliers and population aging in Japan: Theory and empirics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Japanese fiscal sustainability; Inflation rate; Seigniorage revenue; Money in the utility; Overlapping generations model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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