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Productivity and Fiscal Policy in Japan: Short-Term Forecasts from the Standard Growth Model

Author

Listed:
  • Selahattin Imrohoroglu

    (Professor, Department of Finance and Business Economics, Marshall School of Business, University of Southern California (E-mail: simrohor@marshall.usc.edu))

  • Nao Sudo

    (Deputy Director, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies (currently, Research and Statistics Department), Bank of Japan (E-mail: nao.sudou@boj.or.jp))

Abstract

Japan is facing severe fiscal challenges. The aging of the population is projected to raise total pension and health expenditures. There is already a huge debt to output ratio, which is the highest among the advanced economies. In this paper we ask, "If the consumption tax rate is raised to 15 percent, will it generate a primary surplus, and what factors are important in achieving a fiscal balance?" With the standard growth model's simulations as "back-of-the-envelope" calculations, the quantitative findings indicate the critical need to contain government expenditures. Even an annual growth rate of 3 percent in GDP over the next 20 years may be insufficient to produce consistent primary surpluses, combined with a new consumption tax rate of 15 percent, unless prudent expenditure policies are implemented.

Suggested Citation

  • Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Nao Sudo, 2011. "Productivity and Fiscal Policy in Japan: Short-Term Forecasts from the Standard Growth Model," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 29, pages 73-106, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:ime:imemes:v:29:y:2011:p:73-106
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    Cited by:

    1. Imrohoroglu, Selahattin & Sudo, Nao, 2011. "Will a Growth Miracle Reduce Debt in Japan?," Economic Review, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 62(1), pages 44-56, January.
    2. Minchung Hsu & Tomoaki Yamada, 2019. "Population Aging, Health Care, and Fiscal Policy Reform: The Challenges for Japan," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 121(2), pages 547-577, April.
    3. Selahattin İmrohoroğlu & Sagiri Kitao & Tomoaki Yamada, 2016. "Achieving Fiscal Balance In Japan," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57(1), pages 117-154, February.
    4. D’Erasmo, P. & Mendoza, E.G. & Zhang, J., 2016. "What is a Sustainable Public Debt?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2493-2597, Elsevier.
    5. Gary Hansen & Selahattin Imrohoroglu, 2016. "Fiscal Reform and Government Debt in Japan: A Neoclassical Perspective," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 21, pages 201-224, July.
    6. Ichiro Muto & Takemasa Oda & Nao Sudo, 2016. "Macroeconomic Impact of Population Aging in Japan: A Perspective from an Overlapping Generations Model," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(3), pages 408-442, August.
    7. Nakajima, Tomoyuki & Takahashi, Shuhei, 2017. "The optimum quantity of debt for Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 17-26.
    8. Hagiwara, Reona, 2020. "Seigniorage and Japanese fiscal sustainability: Simulation analysis using an overlapping generations model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 340-356.
    9. Ellen R. McGrattan & Kazuaki Miyachi & Adrian Peralta-Alva, 2019. "On Financing Retirement, Health Care, and Long-Term Care in Japan," Staff Report 586, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    10. R. Anton Braun & Tomoyuki Nakajima, 2011. "Making the Case for a Low Intertemporal Elasticity of Substitution," KIER Working Papers 788, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    11. Yamada, Tomoaki, 2012. "Income risk, macroeconomic and demographic change, and economic inequality in Japan," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 63-84.
    12. R. Anton Braun & Douglas H. Joines, 2014. "The Implications of a graying japan for government policy," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2014-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    13. Selahattin İmrohoroğlu & Sagiri Kitao & Tomoaki Yamada, 2017. "Can Guest Workers Solve Japan'S Fiscal Problems?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(3), pages 1287-1307, July.
    14. Miyazawa, Kensuke & Yamada, Junji, 2015. "The growth strategy of Abenomics and fiscal consolidation," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 82-99.
    15. Braun, R. Anton & Joines, Douglas H., 2015. "The implications of a graying Japan for government policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 1-23.
    16. Tomoaki Yamada & Minchung Hsu & Gary D. Hansen, 2011. "Financing Health Care in Japan: The Impact of an Aging Population," 2011 Meeting Papers 717, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. R. Anton Braun & Tomoyuki Nakajima, 2018. "Why Prices Don't Respond Sooner to a Prospective Sovereign Debt Crisis," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 29, pages 235-255, July.
    18. Rod Tyers & Jenny Corbett, 2012. "Japan's economic slowdown and its global implications: a review of the economic modelling," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 26(2), pages 1-28, November.
    19. Kitao, Sagiri, 2015. "Fiscal cost of demographic transition in Japan," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 37-58.
    20. İmrohoroğlu, Selahattin & Kitao, Sagiri & Yamada, Tomoaki, 2019. "Fiscal sustainability in Japan: What to tackle?," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 14(C).
    21. Kato, Ryuta Ray, 2022. "Population aging and labor mobility in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    22. Reona Hagiwara, 2022. "Welfare Effects of Health Insurance Reform: The Role of Elastic Medical Demand," IMES Discussion Paper Series 22-E-05, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    23. Reona Hagiwara, 2023. "Aging, Health Risk, and Interest Rates," Working Papers 2303, Waseda University, Faculty of Political Science and Economics.
    24. Ellen R. McGrattan & Kazuaki Miyachi & Mr. Adrian Peralta Alva, 2018. "On Financing Retirement, Health, and Long-term Care in Japan," IMF Working Papers 2018/249, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Primary balance; Fiscal policy; Productivity; Growth theory;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General

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