Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Productivity and Fiscal Policy in Japan: Short Term Forecasts from the Standard Growth Model

Contents:

Author Info

  • Selahattin Imrohoroglu

    (Professor, Department of Finance and Business Economics, Marshall School of Business, University of Southern California (E-mail: simrohor@marshall.usc.edu))

  • Nao Sudo

    (Deputy Director, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (E-mail: nao.sudou@boj.or.jp))

Abstract

Japan is facing severe fiscal challenges. The aging of the population is projected to raise total pension and health expenditures. There is already a huge debt to output ratio which is the highest in advanced economies. In this paper we ask `if the consumption tax rate is raised to 15%, will there be a primary surplus, and what factors are important in achieving a fiscal balance?' Using the standard growth model 's simulations as `modern back-of-the-envelope' calculations, the quantitative findings indicate the critical need to contain government expenditures. Even an annual growth rate of 3% in GDP over the next 20 years may be insufficient to turn consistent primary surpluses, combined with a new consumption tax rate of 15%, unless prudent expenditure policies are implemented.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.imes.boj.or.jp/research/papers/english/10-E-23.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan in its series IMES Discussion Paper Series with number 10-E-23.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Sep 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ime:imedps:10-e-23

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 2-1-1 Nihonbashi, Hongoku-cho, Chuo-ku, Tokyo 103
Phone: +81-3-3279-111
Fax: +81-3-3510-1265
Email:
Web page: http://www.imes.boj.or.jp/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Primary Balance; Fiscal Policy; Productivity; Growth Theory;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. R. Anton Braun & Tomoyuki Nakajima, 2011. "Making the Case for a Low Intertemporal Elasticity of Substitution," KIER Working Papers 788, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
  2. Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Nao Sudo, 2011. "Will a Growth Miracle Reduce Debt in Japan?," IMES Discussion Paper Series 11-E-01, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  3. Tomoaki Yamada & Sagiri Kitao & Selahattin Imrohoroglu, 2013. "Achieving Fiscal Balance in Japan," 2013 Meeting Papers 736, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. R. Anton Braun & Tomoyuki Nakajima, 2011. "Why Prices Don't Respond Sooner to a Prospective Sovereign Debt Crisis," KIER Working Papers 796, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
  5. Yamada, Tomoaki, 2012. "Income risk, macroeconomic and demographic change, and economic inequality in Japan," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 63-84.
  6. Rod Tyers & Jenny Corbett, 2011. "Japan's Economic Slowdown and its Global Implications: A Review of the Economic Modelling," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 11-19, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  7. Gary Hansen & Selo Imrohoroglu, 2013. "Fiscal Reform and Government Debt in Japan: A Neoclassical Perspective," NBER Working Papers 19431, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Tomoaki Yamada & Minchung Hsu & Gary D. Hansen, 2011. "Financing Health Care in Japan: The Impact of an Aging Population," 2011 Meeting Papers 717, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  9. Muto, Ichiro & Oda, Takemasa & Sudo, Nao, 2012. "Macroeconomic Impact of Population Aging in Japan: A Perspective from an Overlapping Generations Model," MPRA Paper 42550, University Library of Munich, Germany.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ime:imedps:10-e-23. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Kinken).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.