Will a Growth Miracle Reduce Debt in Japan?
AbstractJapan has the highest debt to GDP ratio among the developed nations. In addition, the population is projected to age rapidly over the next few decades, which will significantly increase the ratio of government expenditures to GDP. In this paper, we explore the effect of economic growth driven by total factor productivity on Japanese debt in the face of higher future social security expenditures. Our main finding is that a decade of unprecedentedly fast growth of total factor productivity, at an average of 6% per year, is needed in order for Japan to eliminate its debt. Since this is very unrealistic, what is needed is a significant reduction in government expenditures together with an increase in the consumption tax rate, to eliminate debt in forty years.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan in its series IMES Discussion Paper Series with number 11-E-01.
Date of creation: Jan 2011
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 2-1-1 Nihonbashi, Hongoku-cho, Chuo-ku, Tokyo 103
Web page: http://www.imes.boj.or.jp/
More information through EDIRC
Government Debt; Productivity; Fiscal Policy;
Other versions of this item:
- E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
- H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
- H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Fumio Hayashi & Edward C. Prescott, 2002.
"Data Appendix to The 1990s in Japan: A Lost Decade,"
hayashi02, Review of Economic Dynamics.
- R. Anton Braun & Daisuke Ikeda & Douglas H. Joines, 2009.
"The Saving Rate In Japan: Why It Has Fallen And Why It Will Remain Low,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(1), pages 291-321, 02.
- R. Anton Braun & Daisuke Ikeda & Douglas H. Joines, 2007. "The Saving Rate in Japan: Why It Has Fallen and Why It Will Remain Low," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-535, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
- Douglas H. Joines & R.Anton Braun & Daisuke Ikeda, 2008. "The saving rate in Japan: Why it has fallen and why it will remain low," CARF F-Series CARF-F-117, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
- Fumio Hayashi & Edward C. Prescott, 2000.
"The 1990s in Japan: a lost decade,"
607, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Timothy J. Kehoe & Edward C. Prescott (), 2007.
"Great depressions of the twentieth century,"
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, number 2007gdott.
- Selo Imrohoroglu & Kaiji Chen & Ayse Imrohoroglu, 2005.
"Japanese Saving Rate,"
2005 Meeting Papers
747, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Nao Sudo, 2011.
"Productivity and Fiscal Policy in Japan: Short-Term Forecasts from the Standard Growth Model,"
Monetary and Economic Studies,
Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 29, pages 73-106, November.
- Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Nao Sudo, 2010. "Productivity and Fiscal Policy in Japan: Short Term Forecasts from the Standard Growth Model," IMES Discussion Paper Series 10-E-23, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
- Chen, Kaiji & Imrohoroglu, Ayse & Imrohoroglu, Selahattin, 2009. "A quantitative assessment of the decline in the U.S. current account," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(8), pages 1135-1147, November.
- Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Ayse Imrohoroglu & Kaiji Chen, 2006. "The Japanese Saving Rate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1850-1858, December.
- Timothy Kehoe & Edward Prescott, 2002.
"Data Appendix to Great Depressions of the Twentieth Century,"
kehoe02, Review of Economic Dynamics.
- Yasuo Hirose & Takushi Kurozumi, 2012.
"Do Investment-Specific Technological Changes Matter For Business Fluctuations? Evidence From Japan,"
Pacific Economic Review,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(2), pages 208-230, 05.
- Hirose, Yasuo & Kurozumi, Takushi, 2011. "Do investment-specific technological changes matter for business fluctuations? Evidence from Japan," MPRA Paper 32944, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Gary D. Hansen & Selahattin Imrohoroglu, 2013.
"Fiscal Reform and Government Debt in Japan: A Neoclassical Perspective,"
IMES Discussion Paper Series
13-E-10, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
- Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Gary Hansen, 2013. "Fiscal Reform and Government Debt in Japan: A Neoclassical Perspective," 2013 Meeting Papers 697, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Gary Hansen & Selo Imrohoroglu, 2013. "Fiscal Reform and Government Debt in Japan: A Neoclassical Perspective," NBER Working Papers 19431, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Muto, Ichiro & Oda, Takemasa & Sudo, Nao, 2012. "Macroeconomic Impact of Population Aging in Japan: A Perspective from an Overlapping Generations Model," MPRA Paper 42550, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Real Arai & Junji Ueda, 2012.
"A Numerical Evaluation on a Sustainable Size of Primary Deficit in Japan,"
KIER Working Papers
823, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
- Arai, Real & Ueda, Junji, 2013. "A numerical evaluation of the sustainable size of the primary deficit in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 59-75.
- Real Arai & Junji Ueda, 2012. "A Numerical Evaluation on a Sustainable Size of Primary Deficit in Japan," Discussion papers ron235, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan.
- Sagiri Kitao & Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Tomoaki Yamada, 2013.
"Achieving Fiscal Balance in Japan,"
Economics Working Paper Archive at Hunter College
441, Hunter College Department of Economics.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Kinken).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.