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A quantitative assessment of the decline in the U.S. current account

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  • Chen, Kaiji
  • Imrohoroglu, Ayse
  • Imrohoroglu, Selahattin

Abstract

Low frequency changes in the U.S. current account can be understood in terms of the influence of differences in productivity growth rates across time and across countries using standard growth theory. In particular, the secular decline is primarily driven by the increase in the U.S. TFP growth rate relative to its trading partners. Differences in population growth rates or fiscal policy have no significant effects on the low frequency changes in the U.S. current account.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Monetary Economics.

Volume (Year): 56 (2009)
Issue (Month): 8 (November)
Pages: 1135-1147

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Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:56:y:2009:i:8:p:1135-1147

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566

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Keywords: Neoclassical growth model Current account balance Total factor productivity;

References

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  1. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2005. "The Unsustainable US Current Account Position Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 5416, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Chang, Yongsung & Schorfheide, Frank, 2010. "Labor-Market Heterogeneity, Aggregation, and the Lucas Critique," CEPR Discussion Papers 8039, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Karel Mertens & Morten O. Ravn, 2010. "Technology-Hours Redux: Tax Changes and the Measurement of Technology Shocks," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2010, pages 41-76 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Ayse Imrohoroglu & Kaiji Chen, 2012. "Debt and the U.S. Economy," 2012 Meeting Papers 229, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. "Imrohoroglu, Selahattin" & "Sudo, Nao", 2011. "Will a Growth Miracle Reduce Debt in Japan?," Economic Review, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 62(1), pages 44-56, January.
  5. Frank Schorfheide, 2008. "Comment on "How Structural Are Structural Parameters?"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 149-163 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Kaiji Chenz & Ayse Imrohoroglu, 2014. "Debt in the U.S. Economy," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1401, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  7. Iscan, Talan B., 2011. "Productivity growth and the U.S. saving rate," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 501-514, January.
  8. Amdur, David & Ersal Kiziler, Eylem, 2012. "Trend shocks and the countercyclical U.S. current account," MPRA Paper 40147, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Kevin X. D. Huang & Hui He, 2013. "Why Do Americans Spend So Much More on Health Care than Europeans?," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 13-00021, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
  10. Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott, 2009. "Unmeasured investment and the puzzling U.S. boom in the 1990s," Staff Report 369, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  11. Muto, Ichiro & Oda, Takemasa & Sudo, Nao, 2012. "Macroeconomic Impact of Population Aging in Japan: A Perspective from an Overlapping Generations Model," MPRA Paper 42550, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Hoffmann, Mathias & Krause, Michael U. & Laubach, Thomas, 2011. "Long-run growth expectations and "global imbalances"," CFS Working Paper Series 2011/01, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  13. Krause, Michael & Hoffmann, Mathias & Laubach, Thomas, 2013. "The Expectations-Driven U.S. Current Account," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79854, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  14. Marek Kapička, 2012. "How Important Is Technology Capital for the United States?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 218-48, April.
  15. Junsang Lee & Keisuke Otsu, 2011. "The Credit Spread and U.S. Business Cycles," Studies in Economics 1123, Department of Economics, University of Kent.
  16. Hui He & Kevin x.d. Huang, 2013. "Why Do Americans Spend So Much More on Health Care than Europeans?--A General Equilibrium Macroeconomic Analysis," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 13-00005, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
  17. Robert Shimer, 2009. "Convergence in Macroeconomics: The Labor Wedge," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 280-97, January.

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