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Unmeasured investment and the puzzling U.S. boom in the 1990s

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Ellen R. McGrattan
Edward C. Prescott

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Abstract

For the 1990s, the basic neoclassical growth model predicts a depressed economy, when in fact the U.S. economy boomed. We extend the base model by introducing intangible investment and non-neutral technology change with respect to producing intangible investment goods and find that the 1990s are not puzzling in light of this new theory. There is micro and macro evidence motivating our extension, and the theory’s predictions are in conformity with U.S. national accounts and capital gains. We compare accounting measures with corresponding measures for our model economy. We find that standard accounting measures greatly understate the 1990s boom. ; Earlier title: Why did U.S. market hours boom in the 1990s? ; Earlier title: Unmeasured investment and the 1990s U.S. hours boom

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its series Staff Report with number 369.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:369

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Keywords: Business cycles ; Productivity CL HG2567 M5A71;

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Ivo Welch & Jay Rial Ritter, 2002. "A Review of IPO Activity, Pricing and Allocations," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm258, Yale School of Management. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Diego Comin & Mark Gertler, 2006. "Medium-Term Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 523-551, June. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Edward C. Prescott, 2004. "Why do Americans work so much more than Europeans?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Jul, pages 2-13. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott, 2005. "Taxes, regulations, and the value of U.S. and U.K. corporations," Staff Report 309, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Andreas Hornstein & Per Krusell, 1996. "Can Technology Improvements Cause Productivity Slowdowns?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1996, Volume 11, pages 209-276 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
  6. Mark C. Doms, 2004. "The boom and bust in information technology investment," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 19-34. [Downloadable!]
  7. Smets, Frank & Wouters, Rafael, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 6112, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Carol Corrado & Charles Hulten & Daniel Sichel, 2005. "Measuring Capital and Technology: An Expanded Framework," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring Capital in the New Economy, pages 11-46 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Carol Corrado & Charles Hulten & Daniel Sichel, 2006. "Intangible capital and economic growth," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  10. Jordi Gali, 2005. "Trends in Hours, Balanced Growth, and the Role of Technology in the Business Cycle," NBER Working Papers 11130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Erik Brynjolfsson & Lorin M. Hitt, 2000. "Beyond Computation: Information Technology, Organizational Transformation and Business Performance," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 23-48, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Chang, Yongsung & Schorfheide, Frank, 2003. "Labor-supply shifts and economic fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1751-1768, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Kahn, James A. & Rich, Robert W., 2007. "Tracking the new economy: Using growth theory to detect changes in trend productivity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 1670-1701, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Elise A. Couper & John P. Hejkal & Alexander L. Wolman, 2003. "Boom and bust in telecommunications," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 1-24. [Downloadable!]
  15. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Krusell, Per, 1997. "Long-Run Implications of Investment-Specific Technological Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(3), pages 342-62, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Hall, Robert E, 1997. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations and the Allocation of Time," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(1), pages S223-50, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Gary D. Hansen & Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "Malthus to Solow," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 1205-1217, September. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Yongsung Chang & Frank Schorfheide, 2003. "Labor shifts and economic fluctuations," Working Paper 03-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. [Downloadable!]
  19. Peter N. Ireland & Scott Schuh, 2007. "Productivity and U.S. Macroeconomic Performance: Interpreting the Past and Predicting the Future with a Two-Sector Real Business Cycle Model," NBER Working Papers 13532, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Miller, Merton H, 1977. "Debt and Taxes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(2), pages 261-75, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Hanno Lustig & Chad Syverson & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2009. "Technological Change and the Growing Inequality in Managerial Compensation," NBER Working Papers 14661, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Urban Jermann & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2009. "Macroeconomic Effects of Financial Shocks," NBER Working Papers 15338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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