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Long-run growth expectations and "global imbalances"

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  • Hoffmann, Mathias
  • Krause, Michael U.
  • Laubach, Thomas

Abstract

This paper examines to what extent the build-up of global imbalances since the mid-1990s can be explained in a purely real open-economy DSGE model in which agents' perceptions of long-run growth are based on filtering observed changes in productivity. We show that long-run growth estimates based on filtering U.S. productivity data comove strongly with long-horizon survey expectations. By simulating the model in which agents filter data on U.S. productivity growth, we closely match the U.S. current account evolution. Moreover, with household preferences that control the wealth effect on labor supply, we can generate output movements in line with the data. --

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Center for Financial Studies (CFS) in its series CFS Working Paper Series with number 2011/01.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:cfswop:201101

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Keywords: Open Economy DSGE Models; Trend Growth; Kalman Filter; Real-time Data; News and Business Cycles;

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References

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  1. Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2009. "What’s News in Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 7201, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Nason, James M. & Rogers, John H., 2006. "The present-value model of the current account has been rejected: Round up the usual suspects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 159-187, January.
  3. Ferrero, Andrea, 2010. "A structural decomposition of the U.S. trade balance: Productivity, demographics and fiscal policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 478-490, May.
  4. Chen, Kaiji & Imrohoroglu, Ayse & Imrohoroglu, Selahattin, 2009. "A quantitative assessment of the decline in the U.S. current account," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(8), pages 1135-1147, November.
  5. Feldstein, Martin, 2008. "Resolving the Global Imbalance: The Dollar and the U.S. Saving Rate," Scholarly Articles 2792081, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  6. Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2003. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1063-1070, November.
  7. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle Is the Trend," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115, pages 69-102.
  8. Robert Kollmann, 1996. "Incomplete asset markets and the cross-country consumption correlation puzzle," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/7640, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  9. Martin S. Feldstein, 2008. "Resolving the Global Imbalance: The Dollar and the U.S. Saving Rate," NBER Working Papers 13952, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Rochelle M. Edge & Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2004. "Learning and shifts in long-run productivity growth," Working Paper Series 2004-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  11. Sims, Christopher A, 2002. "Solving Linear Rational Expectations Models," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 20(1-2), pages 1-20, October.
  12. Mico Loretan, 2005. "Indexes of the foreign exchange value of the dollar," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Win, pages 1-8.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Dan Cao & Jean-Paul L'Huillier, 2012. "Technological Revolutions and Debt Hangovers - Is There a Link?," EIEF Working Papers Series 1216, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Feb 2013.
  2. Hoffmann, Mathias & Krause, Michael U. & Laubach, Thomas, 2012. "Trend growth expectations and US house prices before and after the crisis," Discussion Papers 12/2012, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  3. Amdur, David & Ersal Kiziler, Eylem, 2012. "Trend shocks and the countercyclical U.S. current account," MPRA Paper 40147, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Timo Bettendorf, 2012. "Investigating Global Imbalances: Empirical Evidence from a GVAR Approach," Studies in Economics 1217, Department of Economics, University of Kent.

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