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Achieving Fiscal Balance in Japan

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Japan’s population is aging fast and the ratio of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) to GDP is highest among advanced economies. In addition, further government spending is expected, causing concerns about the potential for JGBs to become a significant global issue. In this paper we build a micro-data based, large-scale overlapping generations model for Japan in which individuals differ in age, gender, employment type, income, and asset holdings, and incorporate the Japanese pension rules in detail. We estimate age-consumption and age-earnings profiles from micro data, assume complete markets and use these to generate tax revenues and transfer payments for government accounts. We calibrate the model so that it replicates the main macroeconomic and fiscal indicators for 2010. Using existing pension law and fiscal parameters and the medium variants of fertility and survival probability projections, we produce future time paths for JGBs and the pension fund.

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Paper provided by Hunter College Department of Economics in its series Economics Working Paper Archive at Hunter College with number 441.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:htr:hcecon:441

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Keywords: Fiscal balance; Social security; Demographic trends;

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  1. Doi, Takero & Hoshi, Takeo & Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi, 2011. "Japanese government debt and sustainability of fiscal policy," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 414-433.
  2. Gunji, Hiroshi & Miyazaki, Kenji, 2011. "Estimates of average marginal tax rates on factor incomes in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 81-106, June.
  3. "Imrohoroglu, Selahattin" & "Sudo, Nao", 2011. "Will a Growth Miracle Reduce Debt in Japan?," Economic Review, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 62(1), pages 44-56, January.
  4. Fumio Hayashi & Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "Data Appendix to The 1990s in Japan: A Lost Decade," Technical Appendices hayashi02, Review of Economic Dynamics.
  5. Jeremy Lise & Nao Sudo & Michio Suzuki & Ken Yamada & Tomoaki Yamada, . "Wage, Income and Consumption Inequality in Japan, 1981-2008: from Boom to Lost Decades," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics.
  6. Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Nao Sudo, 2010. "Productivity and Fiscal Policy in Japan: Short Term Forecasts from the Standard Growth Model," IMES Discussion Paper Series 10-E-23, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  7. Attanasio Orazio P. & Gianluca Violante, 1999. "Global Demographic Trends and Social Security Reform," REVISTA DESARROLLO Y SOCIEDAD, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
  8. Storesletten, Kjetil, 2001. "Fiscal Implications of Immigration - A Net Present Value Calculation -," Seminar Papers 701, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  9. Masaya Sakuragawa & Kaoru Hosono, 2010. "Fiscal Sustainability Of Japan: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 61(4), pages 517-537, December.
  10. Takeo Hoshi & Takatoshi Ito, 2012. "Defying Gravity: How Long Will Japanese Government Bond Prices Remain High?," NBER Working Papers 18287, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Genda, Yuji & Kambayashi, Ryo, 2002. "Declining Self-Employment in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 73-91, March.
  12. Fumio Hayashi & Edward C. Prescott, 2000. "The 1990s in Japan: a lost decade," Working Papers 607, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
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Cited by:
  1. Gary D. Hansen & Selahattin Imrohoroglu, 2013. "Fiscal Reform and Government Debt in Japan: A Neoclassical Perspective," IMES Discussion Paper Series 13-E-10, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.

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