A Numerical Evaluation on a Sustainable Size of Primary Deficit in Japan
Abstract
We investigate how large a size of primary deficit to GDP ratio the Japan's government can sustain. For this investigation, we construct an overlapping generations model, in which multi-generational households live and the government maintains a constant ratio of primary deficit to GDP. We numerically show that the primary deficit cannot be sustained unless the rate of economic growth is unrealistically high, which is more than five percent according to our settings. Our result implies that Japan's government needs to achieve a positive primary balance in the long-run in order to avoid the divergence of the public debt to GDP ratio.Download Info
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Paper provided by Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan in its series Discussion papers with number ron235.Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mof:wpaper:ron235
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Related research
Keywords: fiscal sustainability; public debt; primary deficit; economic growth;Other versions of this item:
- Real Arai & Junji Ueda, 2012. "A Numerical Evaluation on a Sustainable Size of Primary Deficit in Japan," KIER Working Papers 823, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
- H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
- H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
- H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-07-23 (All new papers)
- NEP-DGE-2012-07-23 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
- NEP-FDG-2012-07-23 (Financial Development & Growth)
- NEP-MAC-2012-07-23 (Macroeconomics)
References
References listed on IDEASPlease report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Toshihiro Ihori & Ryuta Ray Kato & Masumi Kawade & Shun-ichiro Bessho, 2005.
"Public Debt and Economic Growth in an Aging Japan,"
CIRJE F-Series
CIRJE-F-372, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
- Toshihiro Ihori & Ryuta Ray Kato & Masumi Kawade & Shun-ichiro Bessho, 2005. "Public Debt and Economic Growth in an Aging Japan," CARF F-Series CARF-F-046, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
- Toshihiro Ihori & Ryuta Ray Kato & Masumi Kawade & Shun-ichiro Bessho, 2006. "Public Debt and Economic Growth in an Aging Japan," Working Papers EMS_2006_11, Research Institute, International University of Japan.
- Daisuke Ishikawa & Junji Ueda & Real Arai, 2012. "Future Changes of the Industrial Structure due to Aging and Soaring Demands for Healthcare Services in Japan - an Analysis Using a Multi-Sector OLG Model in an Open Economy -," Discussion papers ron243, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan.
- Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Nao Sudo, 2011. "Will a Growth Miracle Reduce Debt in Japan?," IMES Discussion Paper Series 11-E-01, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
- Masaya Sakuragawa & Kaoru Hosono, 2010. "Fiscal Sustainability Of Japan: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 61(4), pages 517-537, December.
- Real Arai, 2011.
"Productive Government Expenditure and Fiscal Sustainability,"
FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis,
Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 67(4), pages 327-351, December.
- Arai, Real, 2008. "Productive government expenditure and fiscal sustainability," MPRA Paper 8553, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Yakita, Akira, 2008. "Sustainability of public debt, public capital formation, and endogenous growth in an overlapping generations setting," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(3-4), pages 897-914, April.
- Shigeyuki Hamori, 1996. "Consumption growth and the intertemporal elasticity of substitution: some evidence from income quintile groups in Japan," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 3(8), pages 529-532.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.Cited by:
- Muto, Ichiro & Oda, Takemasa & Sudo, Nao, 2012. "Macroeconomic Impact of Population Aging in Japan: A Perspective from an Overlapping Generations Model," MPRA Paper 42550, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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