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Do Investment-Specific Technological Changes Matter For Business Fluctuations? Evidence From Japan

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  • YASUO HIROSE
  • TAKUSHI KUROZUMI

Abstract

The observed decline in the relative price of investment goods to consumption goods in Japan suggests the existence of investment-specific technological (IST) changes. We examine whether IST changes are a major source of business fluctuations in Japan, by estimating a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with Bayesian methods. We show that IST changes are less important than neutral technological changes in explaining output fluctuations. We also demonstrate that investment fluctuations are mainly driven by shocks to investment adjustment costs. Such shocks represent variations of costs involved in changing investment spending, such as financial intermediation costs. We then find that the estimated series of the investment adjustment cost shock correlates strongly with the diffusion index of firms' financial position in the Tankan (Short-term Economic Survey of Enterprises in Japan). We thus argue that the large decline in investment growth in the early 1990s is due to an increase in investment adjustment costs stemming from firms' tight financial constraint after the collapse of Japan's asset price bubble.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.1468-0106.2012.00580.x
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Pacific Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 17 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 (05)
Pages: 208-230

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Handle: RePEc:bla:pacecr:v:17:y:2012:i:2:p:208-230

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  1. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-17, June.
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  4. Hirose, Yasuo & Kurozumi, Takushi, 2011. "Do investment-specific technological changes matter for business fluctuations? Evidence from Japan," MPRA Paper 32944, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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Cited by:
  1. Hirose, Yasuo & Kurozumi, Takushi, 2011. "Do investment-specific technological changes matter for business fluctuations? Evidence from Japan," MPRA Paper 32944, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Sohei Kaihatsu & Takushi Kurozumi, 2014. "Sources of Business Fluctuations: Financial or Technology Shocks?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(2), pages 224-242, April.
  3. "Imrohoroglu, Selahattin" & "Sudo, Nao", 2011. "Will a Growth Miracle Reduce Debt in Japan?," Economic Review, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 62(1), pages 44-56, January.
  4. Shingo Umino, 2013. "Re-evaluation of Japan's monetary policy in the late 1980s with the interest rate gap," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(11), pages 1027-1031, July.
  5. Kosuke Aoki & Nao Sudo, 2013. "Bank’s regulation, asset portfolio choice of banks, and macroeconomic dynamics," CARF F-Series CARF-F-323, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
  6. Muto, Ichiro & Sudo, Nao & Yoneyama, Shunichi, 2013. "Productivity Slowdown in Japan’s Lost Decades: How Much of It is Attributed to Financial Factors?," Dynare Working Papers 28, CEPREMAP.

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