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Financing Health Care in Japan: The Impact of an Aging Population

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  • Tomoaki Yamada

    (Meiji University)

  • Minchung Hsu

    (GRIPS)

  • Gary D. Hansen

    (UCLA)

Abstract

This is a description of some work in progress aimed at providing a quantitative analysis of the impact of population aging in Japan on financing its National Health Insurance program. We construct a general equilibrium life-cycle economy that is used to study the impact of an aging population (an increased dependency ratio and increased per capita medical expenditures) on household's work and savings behavior, as well as on aggregate output and welfare. In particular, taking 2010 as an initial starting point, we calculate the transition path predicted by our model as the population structure changes and medical costs increase, using values for 2055 to construct a terminal steady state. We also evaluate various policy alternatives designed to lessen the negative impact of aging on the economy.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2011 Meeting Papers with number 717.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:red:sed011:717

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  1. Abe, Naohito & Yamada, Tomoaki, 2009. "Nonlinear income variance profiles and consumption inequality over the life cycle," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 344-366, September.
  2. Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Nao Sudo, 2010. "Productivity and Fiscal Policy in Japan: Short Term Forecasts from the Standard Growth Model," IMES Discussion Paper Series 10-E-23, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  3. R. Anton Braun & Daisuke Ikeda & Douglas H. Joines, 2006. "Saving and interest rates in Japan: why they have fallen and why they will remain low," Working Paper Series 2006-39, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  4. Mariacristina De Nardi & Eric French & John Bailey Jones, 2009. "Why do the Elderly Save? The Role of Medical Expenses," NBER Working Papers 15149, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Yasushi Iwamoto & Miki Kohara & Makoto Saito, 2009. "On the Consumption Insurance Effects of Long-term Care Insurance in Japan: Evidence from Micro-level Household Data," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd09-109, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  6. Shinichi Nishiyama & Kent Smetters, 2005. "Consumption Taxes and Economic Efficiency with Idiosyncratic Wage Shocks," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(5), pages 1088-1115, October.
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