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The saving rate in Japan: Why it has fallen and why it will remain low

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  • Douglas H. Joines

    (University of Southern California)

  • R.Anton Braun

    (University of Tokyo)

  • Daisuke Ikeda

    (Northwestern University and Bank of Japan)

Abstract

During the 1990s, Japan began experiencing demographic changes that are larger and more rapid than in other OECD countries. These demographic changes will become even more pronounced in future years. We are interested in understanding the role of lower fertility rates and aging for the evolution of Japan?s saving rate. We use a computable general equilibrium model to analyze the response of the national saving rate to changes in demographics and total factor productivity. In our model aging accounts for 2 to 3 percentage points.

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File URL: http://www.carf.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/pdf/workingpaper/fseries/119.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo in its series CARF F-Series with number CARF-F-117.

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Length: 55 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cfi:fseres:cf117

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  1. Christian Broda & David E. Weinstein, 2004. "Happy News from the Dismal Science: Reassessing the Japanese Fiscal Policy and Sustainability," NBER Working Papers 10988, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. R.Anton Braun & Daisuke Ikeda & Douglas H. Joines, 2006. "Saving and interest rates in Japan: Why they have fallen and why they will remain low," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
  3. Martin Browning & Lars Peter Hansen & James J. Heckman, 1999. "Micro Data and General Equilibrium Models," Discussion Papers 99-10, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
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  7. Charles Yuji Horioka & Hideki Fujisaki & Wako Watanabe & Takatsugu Kouno, 2000. "Are Americans More Altruistic than the Japanese? A U.S.-Japan Comparison of Saving and Bequest Motives," NBER Working Papers 7463, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Hayashi, Fumio, 1995. "Is the Japanese Extended Family Altruistically Linked? A Test Based on Engel Curves," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(3), pages 661-74, June.
  9. Kaiji Chen & Ayse Imrohoroglu & Selo Imrohoroglu, 2005. "Japanese Saving Rate," Macroeconomics 0502017, EconWPA.
  10. Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Ayse Imrohoroglu & Kaiji Chen, 2006. "The Japanese Saving Rate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1850-1858, December.
  11. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1990. "Supply-Side Economics: An Analytical Review," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(2), pages 293-316, April.
  12. S. Rao Aiyagari, 1993. "Uninsured idiosyncratic risk and aggregate saving," Working Papers 502, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  13. José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 2001. "Population Changes and Capital Accumulation: The Aging of the Baby Boom," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 0(1), pages 7.
  14. Hayashi, Fumio & Ito, Takatoshi & Slemrod, Joel, 1988. "Housing finance imperfections, taxation, and private saving: A comparative simulation analysis of the United States and Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 215-238, September.
  15. Lawrence J. Christiano, 1989. "Understanding Japan's saving rate: the reconstruction hypothesis," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 10-25.
  16. Takashi Oshio & Naohiro Yashiro, 1997. "Social Security and Retirement in Japan," NBER Working Papers 6156, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ko, Jun-Hyung, 2011. "Has the Government Lowered the Hours Worked? Evidence from Japan," MPRA Paper 30058, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Tokuo Iwaisako & Keiko Okada, 2010. "Understanding the Decline in Japan's Saving Rate in the New Millennium," Macroeconomics Working Papers 23113, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  3. Keisuke Otsu, 2009. "A Neoclassical Analysis of the Postwar Japanese Economy," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 20.
  4. Miguel Sánchez Romero & Joze Sambt & Alexia Prskawetz, 2012. "Quantifying the role of alternative pension reforms on the Austrian economy," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2012-026, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
  5. R. Anton Braun & Lena Mareen Korber, 2010. "New Keynesian Dynamics in a Low Interest Rate Environment," IMES Discussion Paper Series 10-E-05, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  6. Keisuke Otsu & Masashi Saito, 2011. "Organizational Dynamics and Aggregate Fluctuations: The Role of Financial Relationships," Studies in Economics 1102, Department of Economics, University of Kent.
  7. Rajnish Mehra & Facundo Piguillem & Edward C. Prescott, 2011. "Costly financial intermediation in neoclassical growth theory," Working Papers 685, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  8. Muto, Ichiro & Oda, Takemasa & Sudo, Nao, 2012. "Macroeconomic Impact of Population Aging in Japan: A Perspective from an Overlapping Generations Model," MPRA Paper 42550, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Fabian Bornhorst & Ashoka Mody, 2012. "Tests of German Resilience," IMF Working Papers 12/239, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Shuhei Aoki & Julen Esteban-Pretel & Tetsuji Okazaki & Yasuyuki Sawada, 2009. "The Role of the Government in Facilitating TFP Growth during Japan's Rapid Growth Era," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-622, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  11. Yamada, Tomoaki, 2011. "A politically feasible social security reform with a two-tier structure," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 199-224, September.
  12. Javier Díaz Giménez & R. AntonBraun, 2010. "Spain, Japan, and the Dangers of Early Fiscal Tightening," Working Papers 2010-14, FEDEA.
  13. Miguel Sánchez Romero, 2011. "The role of demography on per capita output growth and saving rates," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2011-015, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
  14. Ayse Imrohoroglu & Kaiji Chen, 2012. "Debt and the U.S. Economy," 2012 Meeting Papers 229, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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