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The saving rate in Japan: Why it has fallen and why it will remain low

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  • Douglas H. Joines

    (University of Southern California)

  • R.Anton Braun

    (University of Tokyo)

  • Daisuke Ikeda

    (Northwestern University and Bank of Japan)

Abstract

During the 1990s, Japan began experiencing demographic changes that are larger and more rapid than in other OECD countries. These demographic changes will become even more pronounced in future years. We are interested in understanding the role of lower fertility rates and aging for the evolution of Japan?s saving rate. We use a computable general equilibrium model to analyze the response of the national saving rate to changes in demographics and total factor productivity. In our model aging accounts for 2 to 3 percentage points.

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File URL: http://www.carf.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/pdf/workingpaper/fseries/119.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo in its series CARF F-Series with number CARF-F-117.

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Length: 55 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cfi:fseres:cf117

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  1. R. Anton Braun & Daisuke Ikeda & Douglas H. Joines, 2005. "Saving and Interest Rates in Japan: Why They Have Fallen and Why They Will Remain Low," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-328, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  2. Selo Imrohoroglu & Kaiji Chen & Ayse Imrohoroglu, 2005. "Japanese Saving Rate," 2005 Meeting Papers 747, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Hansen, G.D., 1991. "The Cyclical and Secular Behavior of the Labor Input : Comparing Efficiency Units and Hours Worked," Papers 36, California Los Angeles - Applied Econometrics.
  4. Aiyagari, S Rao, 1994. "Uninsured Idiosyncratic Risk and Aggregate Saving," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(3), pages 659-84, August.
  5. Charles Yuji Horioka & Hideki Fujisaki & Wako Watanabe & Takatsugu Kouno, 2000. "Are Americans More Altruistic than the Japanese? A U.S.-Japan Comparison of Saving and Bequest Motives," NBER Working Papers 7463, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Ogaki, M & Reinhart, C-M, 1995. "Measuring Intertemporal Substitution : The Role of Durable Goods," RCER Working Papers 404, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  7. Fatih Guvenen, 2005. "Reconciling Conflicting Evidence on the Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution: A Macroeconomic Perspective," Macroeconomics 0507005, EconWPA.
  8. Hayashi, Fumio & Ando, Albert & Ferris, Richard, 1988. "Life cycle and bequest savings A study of Japanese and U.S. households based on data from the 1984 NSFIE and the 1983 survey of consumer finances," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 450-491, December.
  9. Fumio Hayashi, 1995. "Is the Japanese Extended Family Altruistically Linked? A Test based on Engel Curves," NBER Working Papers 5033, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Robert E. Hall, 1981. "Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption," NBER Working Papers 0720, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Kenneth L. Judd, 1998. "Numerical Methods in Economics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262100711, December.
  12. R. Anton Braun & Toshihiro Okada & Nao Sudo, 2008. "U.S. R&D and Japanese Medium Term Cycles," Discussion Paper Series 43, School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University, revised Oct 2008.
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