Public Debt and Economic Growth in an Aging Japan
AbstractThis?paper?examines?the?effects of the demographic change and the government debt policy in Japan on economic growth and economic welfare, particularly by taking into account the existing public pension scheme as well as national medical expenditure through the existing public health insurance, wherea computational overlapping generations model is used within a general equilibrium context. One of the main results of this paper is that the tax burden (GDP) ratio will increase up to about 36%, and the social security burden (GDP) ratio will increase up to 23.3% in 2050, even though the government tries to have a positive primary balance by 2010. The ratio of public health insurance bene?ts to GDP is expected to increase at 1% every 10years, and the ratio will be around 9.6%in 2050. The 2004 public pension reform will successfully result in a 13 point decrease in the contribution rate from 36.44% to 23.53%, and reduce the social security burden (GDP) ratio by about 8 points from 23.27% to 15.02% in 2050, compared with the benchmark case.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo in its series CARF F-Series with number CARF-F-046.
Length: 47 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2005
Date of revision:
Other versions of this item:
- Toshihiro Ihori & Ryuta Ray Kato & Masumi Kawade & Shun-ichiro Bessho, 2006. "Public Debt and Economic Growth in an Aging Japan," Working Papers EMS_2006_11, Research Institute, International University of Japan.
- Toshihiro Ihori & Ryuta Ray Kato & Masumi Kawade & Shun-ichiro Bessho, 2005. "Public Debt and Economic Growth in an Aging Japan," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-372, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
- H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
- E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
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