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The rural exodus and the rise of Europe

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  • Thomas BAUDIN

    (IESEG School of Management, Univ. Lille, CNRS, UMR 9221 - LEM - Lille Economie Management, F-59000 Lille, France and IRES, Université Catholique de Louvain)

  • Robert STELTER

    (University of Basel, Faculty of Business and Economics and Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research)

Abstract

We propose a unified model of growth and internal migration and identify its deep parameters using an original set of Swedish data. We show that inter- nal migration conditions had to be favorable enough to induce an exodus out of the countryside in order to fuel the industrial development of cities and the demographic transition of the country. We then compare the respective effects of shocks to internal migration costs, to infant mortality and to the productivity of rural industry to the economic take-off and demographic transition that occurred in Sweden. Negative shocks to internal mobility generate larger delays in the take-off of growth than do mortality shocks equivalent to the bubonic plague. These delays are dramatic when rural industry is less productive in the early phase of industrialization. The economic and demographic dynamics of Sweden were very similar to those of the rest of Europe at the time of industrialization, which allows us to generalize our findings

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas BAUDIN & Robert STELTER, 2022. "The rural exodus and the rise of Europe," Working Papers 2022-iFlame-01, IESEG School of Management.
  • Handle: RePEc:ies:wpaper:e202202
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    : Demographic transition; Industrialization; Rural exodus; Mortal- ity differentials; Fertility differentials;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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