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Labor Supply Effects of the Recent Social Security Benefit Cuts: Empirical Estimates Using Cohort Discontinuities

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Author Info
Giovanni Mastrobuoni

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Abstract

In response to a "crisis" in Social Security financing two decades ago Congress implemented an increase in the Normal Retirement Age (NRA) of two months per year for cohorts born in 1938 and after. These cohorts began reaching retirement age in 2000. This paper studies the effects of these benefit cuts on recent retirement behavior. The evidence strongly suggests that the mean retirement age of the affected cohorts has increased by about half as much as the increase in the NRA. If older workers continue to increase their labor supply in the same way, there will be important implications for the estimates of Social Security trust fund exhaustion that have played such a major role in recent discussions of Social Security reform.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Collegio Carlo Alberto in its series Carlo Alberto Notebooks with number 33.

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Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision: 2006
Handle: RePEc:cca:wpaper:33

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Related research
Keywords: normal retirement age; retirement behavior; social security reform;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Mark Duggan & Perry Singleton & Jae Song, 2005. "Aching to Retire? The Rise in the Full Retirement Age and its Impact on the Disability Rolls," NBER Working Papers 11811, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Mark Aguiar & Erik Hurst, 2005. "Consumption versus Expenditure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(5), pages 919-948, October.
  3. Burtless, Gary, 1986. "Social Security, Unanticipated Benefit Increases, and the Timing of Retirement," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(5), pages 781-805, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Aigner, Dennis J., 1973. "Regression with a binary independent variable subject to errors of observation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 49-59, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Jonathan Gruber & Peter Orszag, 2000. "Does the Social Security Earnings Test Affect Labor Supply and Benefits Receipt?," NBER Working Papers 7923, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Ronald D. Lee & Michael W. Anderson & Shripad Tuljapurkar, 2003. "Stochastic Forecasts of the Social Security Trust Fund," Working Papers wp043, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center. [Downloadable!]
  7. Robin L. Lumsdaine & James H. Stock & David A. Wise, 1996. "Why Are Retirement Rates So High at Age 65?," NBER Chapters, in: Advances in the Economics of Aging, pages 61-82 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Courtney Coile & Jonathan Gruber, 2000. "Social Security and Retirement," NBER Working Papers 7830, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Joseph F. Quinn, 1999. "Has the Early Retirement Trend Reversed?," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 424, Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. Card, David & Krueger, Alan B, 1992. "Does School Quality Matter? Returns to Education and the Characteristics of Public Schools in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(1), pages 1-40, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Fields, Gary S. & Mitchell, Olivia S., 1984. "The effects of social security reforms on retirement ages and retirement incomes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1-2), pages 143-159, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Krueger, Alan B & Pischke, Jorn-Steffen, 1992. "The Effect of Social Security on Labor Supply: A Cohort Analysis of the Notch Generation," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 10(4), pages 412-37, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Brigitte C. Madrian & Lars John Lefgren, 1999. "A Note on Longitudinally Matching Current Population Survey (CPS) Respondents," NBER Technical Working Papers 0247, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. David M. Blau & Ryan Goodstein, 2007. "What Explains Trends in Labor Force Participation of Older Men in the United States?," IZA Discussion Papers 2991, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  2. Paolo Ghirardato & Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci, 2007. "Revealed Ambiguity and Its Consequences: Updating," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 44, Collegio Carlo Alberto. [Downloadable!]
  3. Daron Acemoglu & Davide Ticchi & Andrea Vindigni, 2008. "A Theory of Military Dictatorships," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 74, Collegio Carlo Alberto. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Daron Acemoglu & Victor Chernozhukov & Muhamet Yildiz, 2007. "Learning and Disagreement in an Uncertain World," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 48, Collegio Carlo Alberto. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Paul de Hek & Frank van Erp, 2009. "Analyzing labour supply of elderly people," CPB Documents 179, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  6. Itzhak Gilboa & Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci & David Schmeidler, 2008. "Objective and Subjective Rationality in a Multiple Prior Model," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 73, Collegio Carlo Alberto, revised 2008. [Downloadable!]
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