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Aging and Pension Reform in a Two-Region World: The Role of Human Capital

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  • Vogel, Edgar

    ()

  • Ludwig, Alexander

    ()

  • Börsch-Supan, Axel

    ()
    (Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA))

Abstract

Projected demographic changes in industrialized countries will reduce the share of the workingage population. Analyses based on standard OLG models predict that these changes will increase the capital-labor ratio. Hence, rates of return to capital decrease and wages increase, which has adverse welfare consequences for current middle aged asset rich agents. This paper addresses two important endogenous adjustments channels to dampen these detrimental effects of demographic change: investing abroad and endogenous human capital formation. Our quantitative finding is that openness has a relatively mild effect. In contrast, endogenous human capital formation in combination with profound changes in pension policy – fixing contribution rates and increases in the retirement age – have strong effects. Maximum welfare losses of demographic change for households alive in 2010 decrease from 6.5% to 3.6% when human capital endogenously adjusts and when the statutory retirement age is indexed to life expectancy.

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Paper provided by Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy in its series MEA discussion paper series with number 11246.

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Date of creation: 24 Sep 2011
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Handle: RePEc:mea:meawpa:11246

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  1. Attanasio Orazio P. & Gianluca Violante, 1999. "Global Demographic Trends and Social Security Reform," REVISTA DESARROLLO Y SOCIEDAD, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
  2. Axel Boersch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2005. "Aging, Pension Reform, and Capital Flows: A Multi-Country Simulation Model," NBER Working Papers 11850, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Morten I. Lau & Panu Poutvaara, 2001. "Social Security Incentives and Human Capital Investment," CESifo Working Paper Series 438, CESifo Group Munich.
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  6. Storesletten, Kjetil, 1998. "Sustaining Fiscal Policy Through Immigration," Seminar Papers 664, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
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  8. Krueger, Dirk & Ludwig, Alexander, 2006. "On the consequences of demographic change for rates of returns to capital, and the distribution of wealth and welfare," CFS Working Paper Series 2006/18, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  9. Ludwig, Alexander & Krüger, Dirk & Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2007. "Demographic Change, Relative Factor Prices, International Capital Flows, and their Differential Effects on the Welfare of Generations," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 07-14, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
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