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Will Social Security and Medicare Remain Viable as the U.S. Population is Aging? An Update

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  • Henning Bohn

Abstract

Yes, subject to concerns about Medicare inefficiencies and potentially self-confirming skepticism. The U.S. social security system-broadly defined to include Medicare-faces significant financial problems as the result of an aging population. But demographic change is also likely to raise savings, increase wages, and reduce interest rates, and up to a point, a growing GDP-share of medical spending is an efficient response to an aging population. Thus viability is more a political economy than an economic feasibility issue. To examine the political viability of social security, I focus on intertemporal cost-benefit tradeoffs in a median voter setting. For a variety of assumptions and policy alternatives, I find that social security should retain majority support.

Suggested Citation

  • Henning Bohn, 2003. "Will Social Security and Medicare Remain Viable as the U.S. Population is Aging? An Update," CESifo Working Paper Series 1062, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1062
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Attanasio, Orazio & Kitao, Sagiri & Violante, Giovanni L., 2007. "Global demographic trends and social security reform," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 144-198, January.
    2. Romp, Ward & Beetsma, Roel, 2020. "Sustainability of pension systems with voluntary participation," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 125-140.
    3. Jeffrey R. Brown & Peter R. Orszag, 2006. "The Political Economy of Government‐Issued Longevity Bonds," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 73(4), pages 611-631, December.
    4. Theodore C. Bergstrom & John L. Hartman, 2005. "Demographics and the Political Sustainability of Pay-as-you-go Social Security," CESifo Working Paper Series 1378, CESifo.
    5. Attanasio Orazio P. & Kitao Sagiri & Violante Giovanni L., 2006. "Quantifying the Effects of the Demographic Transition in Developing Economies," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-44, April.

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