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The Baby Boom and the Stock Market Boom

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Author Info
Kyung-Mook Lim
David N. Weil

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Abstract

This paper addresses two issues. The first is whether demographic change was plausibly responsible for the run-up in stock prices over the last decade, and whether an attempt by the baby boom cohort to cash out of its investments in the period 2010-2030 might lead to an "asset meltdown". The second issue is whether the rise in dependency that will accompany the retirement of the baby-boom cohort calls for an increase in national saving. We analyze these issues using a forward-looking macro-demographic model, and show that they are related via the existence of installation costs for capital. If such costs are sufficiently large, then demographics do have the power to affect stock prices, but "saving for America's old age" is less optimal. However, conventional estimates of capital installation costs are not large enough to explain large stock price movements in response to actual demographic change. Copyright The editors of the "Scandinavian Journal of Economics", 2003 .

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Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal The Scandinavian Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 105 (2003)
Issue (Month): 3 (09)
Pages: 359-378
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Handle: RePEc:bla:scandj:v:105:y:2003:i:3:p:359-378

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Andrew B. Abel & Olivier J. Blanchard, 1983. "An Intertemporal Model of Saving and Investment," NBER Working Papers 0885, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Weil, David N., 1989. "The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 235-258, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Weil, David N., 1993. "The economics of population aging," Handbook of Population and Family Economics, in: M. R. Rosenzweig & Stark, O. (ed.), Handbook of Population and Family Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 17, pages 967-1014 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Douglas W. Elmendorf & Louise M. Sheiner, 2000. "Should America Save for Its Old Age? Fiscal Policy, Population Aging, and National Saving," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 57-74, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Cutler, D.M. & Poterba, J.M. & Sheiner, L.M. & Summers, L.H., 1990. "An Aging Society: Opportunity Or Challenge," Working papers 553, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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  6. Andrew B. Abel, 2001. "Will Bequests Attenuate The Predicted Meltdown In Stock Prices When Baby Boomers Retire?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 589-595, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Oliner, Stephen & Rudebusch, Glenn & Sichel, Daniel, 1995. "New and Old Models of Business Investment: A Comparison of Forecasting Performance," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(3), pages 806-26, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Andrew B. Abel, 2002. "The effects of a baby boom on stock prices and capital accumulation in the presence of Social Security," Working Papers 03-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
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  9. repec:fth:harver:1490 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Bakshi, Gurdip S & Chen, Zhiwu, 1994. "Baby Boom, Population Aging, and Capital Markets," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(2), pages 165-202, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Barry Bosworth & Gary Burtless, 1997. "Social Security reform in a global context," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jun, pages 243-274. [Downloadable!]
  12. James M. Poterba, 2001. "Demographic Structure And Asset Returns," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 565-584, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Heinrich Hock & David N. Weil, 2006. "The Dynamics of the Age Structure, Dependency, and Consumption," NBER Working Papers 12140, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Dongchul Cho, 2005. "Interest Rate, Inflation, and Housing Price: With an Emphasis on Chonsei Price in Korea," NBER Working Papers 11054, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. David N. Weil, 2006. "Population Ageing," Working Papers id:506, esocialsciences.com. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Junning Cai, 2004. "Baby Boom, Asset Market Meltdown and Liquidity Trap," Macroeconomics 0401002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  5. Robert F. Martin, 2005. "The baby boom: predictability in house prices and interest rates," International Finance Discussion Papers 847, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. James Poterba, 2004. "The Impact of Population Aging on Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 10851, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Ross S. Guest & Ian M. McDonald, 2007. "Other-regarding Uzawa Preferences and Living Standard Catch-up," DEGIT Conference Papers c012_034, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade. [Downloadable!]
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