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The Impact of Population Ageing on Technological Progress and TFP Growth, with Application to United States: 1950-2050

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  • Izmirlioglu, Yusuf
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    Abstract

    I examine the effect of age-distribution of the society on economic growth through technological progress. I build a multisector economy model that involves population pyramid. I characterize the steady-state of the model for low and high population growth rate. Higher population growth rate yields faster TFP and output growth in the long-run. I analyze dynamic behavior of the economy. I calibrate the model for United States, 1950-2000 and using the estimated parameters I make predictions about the impact of population ageing on economic growth.

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    File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/24687/
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 24687.

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    Date of creation: 05 Dec 2008
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    Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:24687

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    Related research

    Keywords: Population Ageing; Demographic Transition; TFP Growth; Technological Progress; Economic Growth Forecast; United States;

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    1. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2005. "Will China Eat Our Lunch or Take Us Out to Dinner? Simulating the Transition Paths of the U.S., EU, Japan, and China," NBER Working Papers 11668, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Miles, David K, 1997. "Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change Upon the Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 1762, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. David Domeij & Martin Flodén, 2006. "Population Aging And International Capital Flows," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1013-1032, 08.
    4. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Louise M. Sheiner & Lawrence H. Summers, 1990. "An Aging Society: Opportunity or Challenge?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1), pages 1-74.
    5. Bernt Bratsberg & James F. Ragan & Jr & John T. Warren, 2003. "Negative returns to seniority: New evidence in academic markets," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 56(2), pages 306-323, January.
    6. repec:fth:harver:1490 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Hippolyte D'Albis, 2007. "Demographic structure and capital accumulation," Post-Print hal-00630200, HAL.
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