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Lifecycle Impacts of the Financial and Economic Crisis on Household Optimal Consumption, Portfolio Choice, and Labor Supply

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  • Jingjing Chai

    (Goethe University Frankfurt)

  • Raimond Maurer

    (Goethe University Frankfurt)

  • Olivia S. Mitchell

    (The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania)

  • Ralph Rogalla

    (Goethe University Frankfurt)

Abstract

The direct financial impact of the financial crisis has been to deal a heavy blow to investment-based pensions; many workers lost a substantial portion of their retirement saving. The financial sector implosion in turn produced an economic crisis for the rest of the economy via high unemployment and reduced labor earnings, which reduced contributions to Social Security and private pensions. Our research asks which types of individuals were most affected by these dual financial and economic shocks, and it also explores how people may react by changing their consumption, saving and investment, work and retirement, and annuitization decisions. We do so with a realistically calibrated lifecycle framework allowing for time-varying investment opportunities and countercyclical risky labor income dynamics. We show that households near retirement will reduce both short- and long-term consumption, boost work effort, and defer retirement. Younger cohorts will initially reduce their work hours, consumption, saving, and equity exposure; later in life, they will have to work more, retire later, consume less, invest more in stocks, and save more.

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File URL: http://www.mrrc.isr.umich.edu/publications/Papers/pdf/wp246.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center in its series Working Papers with number wp246.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mrr:papers:wp246

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  1. Francisco J. Gomes & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Luis M. Viceira, 2008. "Optimal Life-Cycle Investing with Flexible Labor Supply: A Welfare Analysis of Life-Cycle Funds," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 297-303, May.
  2. Alan L. Gustman & Thomas L. Steinmeier & Nahid Tabatabai, 2009. "What the Stock Market Decline Means for the Financial Security and Retirement Choices of the Near-Retirement Population," NBER Working Papers 15435, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Christopher D. Carroll & Wendy E. Dunn, 1997. "Unemployment Expectations, Jumping (S,s) Triggers, and Household Balance Sheets," NBER Working Papers 6081, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Jingjing Chai & Wolfram Horneff & Raimond Maurer & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2009. "Extending Life Cycle Models of Optimal Portfolio Choice: Integrating Flexible Work, Endogenous Retirement, and Investment Decisions with Lifetime Payouts," NBER Working Papers 15079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Coile, Courtney & Diamond, Peter & Gruber, Jonathan & Jousten, Alain, 2002. "Delays in claiming social security benefits," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(3), pages 357-385, June.
  6. Michael D. Hurd & Susann Rohwedder, 2010. "The Effects of the Economic Crisis on the Older Population," Working Papers wp231, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
  7. Francisco Gomes & Alexander Michaelides, 2005. "Optimal Life-Cycle Asset Allocation: Understanding the Empirical Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 869-904, 04.
  8. Jeffrey R. Brown & Olivia S. Mitchell & James M. Poterba & Mark J. Warshawsky, . "Taxing Retirement Income: Nonqualified Annuities and Distributions from Qualified Accounts," Pension Research Council Working Papers 99-3, Wharton School Pension Research Council, University of Pennsylvania.
  9. repec:crr:crrwps:1999-06 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Pascal St-Amour & Stephen Gordon, 2000. "A Preference Regime Model of Bull and Bear Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 1019-1033, September.
  11. Joao F. Cocco, 2005. "Consumption and Portfolio Choice over the Life Cycle," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(2), pages 491-533.
  12. Brady, Peter J., 2009. "What Does the Market Crash Mean for the Ability of 401(k) Plans to Provide Retirement Income?," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 62(3), pages 455-76, September.
  13. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 2005. "Will China Eat Our Lunch or Take Us Out to Dinner? Simulating the Transition Paths of the U.S., EU, Japan, and China," NBER Working Papers 11668, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2002. "International Asset Allocation With Regime Shifts," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1137-1187.
  15. Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmermann, 2008. "International asset allocation under regime switching, skew, and kurtosis preferences," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(2), pages 889-935, April.
  16. Kjetil Storesletten & Chris I. Telmer & Amir Yaron, 2004. "Cyclical Dynamics in Idiosyncratic Labor Market Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(3), pages 695-717, June.
  17. João Cocco & Francisco Gomes & Pascal Maenhout, 1998. "Consumption and Portfolio Choice over the Life-Cycle," Center for Economic Studies - Discussion papers ces9805, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Centrum voor Economische Studiën.
  18. Olivia S. Mitchell & John W.R. Phillips, 2006. "Social Security Replacement Rates for Alternative Earnings Benchmarks," Working Papers wp116, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
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Cited by:
  1. Hugo Benétez-Silva & J. Ignacio Garcéa-Pérez & Sergi Jiménez-Martén, 2011. "The Effects of Employment Uncertainty and Wealth Shocks on the Labor Supply and Claiming Behavior of Older American Workers," Working Papers 564, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  2. Florida, Richard & Mellander, Charlotta & Holgersson, Thomas, 2012. "Up in the Air: The Role of Airports for Regional Economic Development," Working Paper Series in Economics and Institutions of Innovation 267, Royal Institute of Technology, CESIS - Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies.

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