In this paper, I argue that demographic factors play a central role in accounting for the trade deficit experienced by the U.S. during the last three decades. The main idea is that cross-country demographic differentials lead to adjustments in savings and investments which are associated with international capital flows towards relatively young and rapidly growing economies. I develop a tractable two-country framework with life-cycle structure that formalizes this intuition. The model permits to illustrate analytically and quantitatively the contribution of demographic variables in determining the equilibrium trade balance. I show that persistent differences in population aging can explain a significant fraction of the negative trend in the U.S. trade balance. Notably, the explicit consideration of the demographic transition also helps to reconcile the dynamics of the trade balance with the evolution of the U.S. fiscal deficits and generates a declining pattern for the real interest rate broadly consistent with the data
Download Info
To download:
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the
proper application to
view it first. Information about this may be contained
in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read
the IDEAS help
page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS
site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Publisher Info
Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2006 Meeting Papers with number
444.
Length: Date of creation: 03 Dec 2006 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:red:sed006:444
Contact details of provider: Postal: Society for Economic Dynamics Anne Stubing CV Starr Center for Applied Economics 269 Mercer Street, Room 303 New York University New York, NY 10003 Fax: 1-860-486-4463 Email: Web page: http://www.EconomicDynamics.org/society.htm More information through EDIRC
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christian Zimmermann).
Find related papers by JEL classification: J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends and Forecasts H87 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - International Fiscal Issues; International Public Goods F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Cited by: (explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)