Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Where did all the borrowing go? A forensic analysis of the U.S. external position

Contents:

Author Info

  • Lane, Philip R.
  • Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria

Abstract

The deterioration in the U.S. net external position in recent years has been much smaller than the extensive net borrowing associated with large current account deficits would have suggested. This paper examines the sources of discrepancies between net borrowing and accumulation of net liabilities for the U.S. economy over the past 25 years. In particular, it highlights and quantifies the role played by net capital gains on the U.S. external portfolio and 'residual adjustments' in explaining this discrepancy. It discusses whether these 'residual adjustments' are likely to be originating from measurement errors in external assets and liabilities, financial flows, or capital gains, and explores the implications of these conjectures for the U.S. financial account and external position. J. Japanese Int. Economies 23 (2) (2009) 177-199.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6WMC-4TXF7WY-2/2/841467a0bce38e746e6e8094cf8247d6
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of the Japanese and International Economies.

Volume (Year): 23 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 177-199

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:eee:jjieco:v:23:y:2009:i:2:p:177-199

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622903

Related research

Keywords: Financial integration Capital flows External assets and liabilities;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Maurice Obstfeld, 2004. "External Adjustment," NBER Working Papers 10843, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Robert Kollmann & Philippe Martin, 2009. "International Portfolios with Supply, Demand and Redistributive Shocks," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2007, pages 231-263 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey, 2005. "International financial adjustment," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  4. Tille, Cédric & van Wincoop, Eric, 2010. "International capital flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 157-175, March.
  5. Michael B. Devereux & Alan Sutherland, 2007. "Solving for Country Portfolios in Open Economy Macro Models," Working Papers 162007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  6. Stephanie E. Curcuru & Tomas Dvorak & Francis E. Warnock, 2007. "The Stability of Large External Imbalances: The Role of Returns Differentials," NBER Working Papers 13074, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. John Kitchen, 2007. "Sharecroppers or Shrewd Capitalists? Projections of the US Current Account, International Income Flows, and Net International Debt," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(5), pages 1036-1061, November.
  8. Cedric Tille, 2003. "The impact of exchange rate movements on U.S. foreign debt," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jan.
  9. Michele Cavallo & Cédric Tille, 2006. "Could capital gains smooth a current account rebalancing?," Working Paper Series 2006-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  10. Philip Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2001. "THE EXTERNAL WEALTH OF NATIONS: Measures of Foreign Assets and Liabilities For Industrial and Developing Countries," Trinity Economics Papers 20014, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  11. Patrick McGuire & Nikola Tarashev, 2006. "Tracking international bank flows," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
  12. Ricardo Hausmann and Federico Sturzenegger, 2006. "Global imbalances or bad accounting? The missing dark matter in the wealth of nations," Business School Working Papers globalimbal, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
  13. Richard H. Clarida & Manuela Goretti & Mark P. Taylor, 2007. "Are There Thresholds of Current Account Adjustment in the G7?," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 169-204 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Patrick McGuire, 2004. "A shift in London's eurodollar market," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
  15. Jane Ihrig & Jaime Marquez, 2006. "Modeling direct investment valuation adjustments and estimating quarterly positions," International Finance Discussion Papers 857, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  16. Stephanie E. Curcuru & Tomas Dvorak & Francis E. Warnock, 2007. "The stability of large external imbalances: the role of returns differentials," International Finance Discussion Papers 894, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  17. Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Philip R. Lane, 2005. "Financial Globalization and Exchange Rates," IMF Working Papers 05/3, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey, 2005. "From World Banker to World Venture Capitalist: US External Adjustment and the Exorbitant Privilege," NBER Working Papers 11563, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Charles P. Thomas & Francis E. Warnock & Jon Wongswan, 2004. "The performance of international portfolios," International Finance Discussion Papers 817, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  20. Matthew Higgins & Thomas Klitgaard & Cédric Tille, 2006. "Borrowing without debt? Understanding the U.S. international investment position," Staff Reports 271, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  21. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2007. "A Global Perspective on External Positions," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 67-102 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Alexandra Heath, 2007. "What explains the US net income balance?," BIS Working Papers 223, Bank for International Settlements.
  23. Matthew Higgins & Thomas Klitgaard & C�dric Tille, 2007. "Borrowing Without Debt? Understanding the U.S. International Investment Position," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(1), pages 17-27, January.
  24. Guy Meredith, 2007. "Debt Dynamics and Global Imbalances: Some Conventional Views Reconsidered," IMF Working Papers 07/4, International Monetary Fund.
  25. William L. Griever & Gary A. Lee & Francis E. Warnock, 2001. "The U.S. system for measuring cross-border investment in securities: a primer with a discussion of recent developments," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Oct, pages 634-650.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Obstfeld, Maurice, 2012. "Does the Current Account Still Matter?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8888, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Jaewoo Lee & Yongsung Chang & Sun-Bin Kim, 2009. "Accounting for Global Dispersion of Current Accounts," IMF Working Papers 09/276, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Stephanie E. Curcuru & Charles P. Thomas & Francis E. Warnock, 2008. "Current Account Sustainability and Relative Reliability," NBER Working Papers 14295, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Horag Choi & Nelson C. Mark, 2009. "Trending Current Accounts," NBER Working Papers 15244, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Stephanie E. Curcuru & Tomas Dvorak & Francis Warnock, 2007. "Cross-border returns differentials," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 04, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  6. Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak, 2008. "The US as the "Demander of Last Resort" and its Implications on China's Current Account," NBER Working Papers 14453, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Aizenman, Joshua & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2008. "The US as the “demander of last resort†and its implications on China’s current account," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt986646mz, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  8. Stephanie E. Curcuru & Charles P. Thomas, 2012. "The return on U.S. direct investment at home and abroad," International Finance Discussion Papers 1057, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Valeria Pellegrini & Enrico Tosti, 2012. "In search of lost capital: an estimation of undeclared portfolio assets," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 131, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  10. Thierry Bracke & Martin Schmitz, 2008. "Channels of international risk-sharing - capital gains versus income flows," Working Paper Series 938, European Central Bank.
  11. Stephanie E. Curcuru & Charles P. Thomas & Francis E. Warnock, 2008. "Current account sustainability and relative reliability," International Finance Discussion Papers 947, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  12. Philip R. Lane, 2012. "Financial Globalisation and the Crisis," BIS Working Papers 397, Bank for International Settlements.
  13. Maurizio Michael Habib, 2010. "Excess returns on net foreign assets - the exorbitant privilege from a global perspective," Working Paper Series 1158, European Central Bank.
  14. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Helene Rey & Nicolas Govillot, 2010. "Exorbitant Privilege and Exorbitant Duty," IMES Discussion Paper Series 10-E-20, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jjieco:v:23:y:2009:i:2:p:177-199

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wendy Shamier).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.