Where Did All The Borrowing Go? A Forensic Analysis of the U.S. External Position

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Where Did All The Borrowing Go? A Forensic Analysis of the U.S. External Position

Author Info

Lane, Philip R.
Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria

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Philip Lane

Abstract

The deterioration in the U.S. net external position in recent years has been much smaller than the extensive net borrowing associated with large current account deficits would have suggested. This paper examines the sources of discrepancies between net borrowing and accumulation of net liabilities for the U.S. economy over the past 25 years. In particular, it highlights and quantifies the role played by net capital gains on the U.S. external portfolio and ‘residual adjustments’ in explaining this discrepancy. It discusses whether these ‘residual adjustments’ are likely to be originating from measurement errors in external assets and liabilities, financial flows, or capital gains, and explores the implications of these conjectures for the U.S. financial account and external position.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 6655.

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Date of creation: Jan 2008
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6655

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Paper
- Philip R. Lane and Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2008. "Where Did All The Borrowing Go? A Forensic Analysis of the U.S. External Position," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp239, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
- Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Philip R. Lane, 2008. "Where Did All the Borrowing Go? A Forensic Analysis of the U.S. External Position," IMF Working Papers 08/28, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2008-04-12 (All new papers)
NEP-CBA-2008-04-12 (Central Banking)
NEP-OPM-2008-04-12 (Open MacroEconomics)

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Jane Ihrig & Jaime Marquez, 2006. "Modeling direct investment valuation adjustments and estimating quarterly positions," International Finance Discussion Papers 857, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
Maurice Obstfeld, 2004. "External Adjustment," NBER Working Papers 10843, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Maurice Obstfeld, 2006. "External Adjustment," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series 1052, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
- Maurico Obstfeld, 2004. "External adjustment," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 127(4), pages 541-568, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Guy Meredith, 2007. "Debt Dynamics and Global Imbalances: Some Conventional Views Reconsidered," IMF Working Papers 07/4, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
Stephanie E. Curcuru & Tomas Dvorak & Francis E. Warnock, 2007. "The stability of large external imbalances: the role of returns differentials," International Finance Discussion Papers 894, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
Philip Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2001. "THE EXTERNAL WEALTH OF NATIONS: Measures of Foreign Assets and Liabilities For Industrial and Developing Countries," CEG Working Papers 20012, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Philip R. Lane, 1999. "The External Wealth of Nations - Measures of Foreign Assets and Liabilities for Industrial and Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 99/115, International Monetary Fund.
- Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 1999. "The External Wealth of Nations: Measures of Foreign Assets and Liabilities for Industrial and Developing Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 2231, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Philip Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2001. "THE EXTERNAL WEALTH OF NATIONS: Measures of Foreign Assets and Liabilities For Industrial and Developing Countries," Trinity Economics Papers 20014, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
- Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2001. "The external wealth of nations: measures of foreign assets and liabilities for industrial and developing countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 263-294, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Stephanie E. Curcuru & Tomas Dvorak & Francis E. Warnock, 2007. "The Stability of Large External Imbalances: The Role of Returns Differentials," NBER Working Papers 13074, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
John Kitchen, 2007. "Sharecroppers or Shrewd Capitalists? Projections of the US Current Account, International Income Flows, and Net International Debt," Review of International Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 15(5), pages 1036-1061, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
William L. Griever & Gary A. Lee & Francis E. Warnock, 2001. "The U.S. system for measuring cross-border investment in securities: a primer with a discussion of recent developments," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Oct, pages 634-650. [Downloadable!]
Patrick McGuire & Nikola Tarashev, 2006. "Tracking international bank flows," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December. [Downloadable!]
Devereux, Michael B & Sutherland, Alan, 2006. "Solving for Country Portfolios in Open Economy Macro Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 5966, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Michael B. Devereux & Alan Sutherland, 2007. "Solving for Country Portfolios in Open Economy Macro Models," IMF Working Papers 07/284, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]

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