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Fear and Market Failure: Global Imbalances and 'Self-insurance'

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Author Info
Miller, Marcus
Zhang, Lei

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Abstract

Two key issues are examined in an integrated framework: the emergence of global imbalances and the precautionary motive for accumulating reserves. Standard models of general equilibrium would predict modest current account surpluses in the emerging markets if they face higher risk than the US itself. But, with pronounced Loss Aversion in Emerging Markets, their precautionary savings can generate substantial ‘global imbalances’, especially if there is an inefficient supply of global ‘insurance’. A combination of fear and market failure generates imbalances as a general equilibrium outcome. In principle, lower real interest rates will ensure aggregate demand equals supply at a global level: but disequilibrium may result if the required real interest rate is negative. A precautionary savings glut appears to us to be a temporary phenomenon, however, destined for correction as and when adequate reserve levels are achieved. If the process of correction is triggered by ‘Sudden Stop’ on capital flows to the US, might this not lead to 'hard landing' that is forecast by several leading macroeconomists? When precautionary saving is combined with financial panic, history offers no guarantee of full employment.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 6000.

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Date of creation: Dec 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6000

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Related research
Keywords: liquidity trap; loss aversion; stochastic dynamic general equilibrium;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
D51 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Exchange and Production Economies
D52 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Incomplete Markets
E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian
E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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  1. Kaltenbrunner, Annina & Nissanke, Machiko, 2009. "The Case for an Intermediate Exchange Rate Regime with Endogenizing Market Structures and Capital Mobility," Working Papers UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER). [Downloadable!]
  2. Jeanne, Olivier & Rancière, Romain, 2008. "The Optimal Level of International Reserves For Emerging Market Countries: A New Formula and Some Applications," CEPR Discussion Papers 6723, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Hume, Michael & Sentance, Andrew, 2009. "The global credit boom: challenges for macroeconomics and policy," Discussion Papers 27, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
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