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Asset Prices and Current Account Fluctuations in G7 Economies

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Author Info
Marcel Fratzscher () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)
Roland Straub () (European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.)

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Abstract

The paper analyses the effect of equity price shocks on current account positions for the G7 industrialized countries in 1974-2007. It uses a Bayesian VAR with sign restrictions for the identification of asset price shocks and to test empirically for their effect on current accounts. Such shocks are found to exert a sizeable effect, with a 10 percent equity price increase for instance in the United States relative to the rest of the world worsening the US trade balance by 0.9 percentage points after 16 quarters. However, the response of the trade balance to equity price shocks varies substantially across countries. The evidence suggests that the channels accounting for this hetero-geneity function both through wealth effects on private consumption and to some extent through the real exchange rate of countries. JEL Classification: E2, F32, F40, G1.

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1014.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2009
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20091014

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Keywords: asset prices; current account; identification; Bayesian VAR; financial markets; industrialized economies.;

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  1. Richard Clarida & Daniel Waldman, 2007. "Is Bad News About Inflation Good News for the Exchange Rate?," NBER Working Papers 13010, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Vega, Clara, 2007. "Real-time price discovery in global stock, bond and foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 251-277, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Philip Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2005. "A Global Perspective on External Positions," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp079, IIIS. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Alessandra Fogli & Fabrizio Perri, 2006. "The "Great Moderation" and the US External Imbalance," NBER Working Papers 12708, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Jaume Ventura, 2001. "A Portfolio View of the U.S. Current Account Deficit," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(2001-1), pages 241-258. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Gruber, Joseph W. & Kamin, Steven B., 2007. "Explaining the global pattern of current account imbalances," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 500-522, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Karl E. Case & John M. Quigley & Robert J. Shiller, 2005. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus the Housing Market," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 0(1). [Downloadable!]
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  13. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2005. "Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustments," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 36(2005-1), pages 67-146. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Charles Engel, 1996. "The Forward Discount Anomaly and the Risk Premium: A Survey of Recent Evidence," NBER Working Papers 5312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Martin Lettau & Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2004. "Understanding Trend and Cycle in Asset Values: Reevaluating the Wealth Effect on Consumption," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 276-299, March. [Downloadable!]
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