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Dissecting the Dynamics of the US Trade Balance in an Estimated Equilibrium Model

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  • P. JACOB
  • G. PEERSMAN

    ()

Abstract

This paper presents empirical evidence on the stochastic driving forces of the US trade balance. In an estimated two-country DSGE model, we .find that investment- specific technology shocks have the strongest impact on the volatility of cyclical trade balance .fluctuations, especially when the shocks are domestic and considered over longer forecast-horizons. At shorter horizons, US and foreign inter-temporal shocks that generate co-movement between consumption and investment, have an impact com- parable to that of the investment-specific technology shocks. In contrast, shocks to US public spending and neutral technology - both forces traditionally used to explain trade balance fluctuations - hardly explain the volatility.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration in its series Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium with number 08/544.

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Length: 50 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rug:rugwps:08/544

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Keywords: US Trade Balance; New Open Economy Macroeconomics; Bayesian Inference; DSGE Estimation;

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Cited by:
  1. Punnoose Jacob, 2013. "Deep habits, price rigidities and the consumption response to Government spending," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2013/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  2. Robert Kollmann, 2013. "Global Banks, Financial Shocks, and International Business Cycles: Evidence from an Estimated Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(s2), pages 159-195, December.
  3. Dey, Jaya, 2013. "The role of investment-specific technology shocks in driving international business cycles: a bayesian approach," MPRA Paper 57803, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Aug 2014.
  4. Robert Kollmann & Marco Ratto & Werner Roeger & Jan in’t Veld & Lukas Vogel, 2014. "What drives the German current account? And how does it affect other EU member states?," European Economy - Economic Papers 516, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  5. Furlanetto, Francesco & Seneca, Martin, 2014. "Investment shocks and consumption," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 111-126.
  6. Eickmeier, Sandra & Lemke, Wolfgang & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2011. "The Changing International Transmission of Financial Shocks: Evidence from a Classical Time-Varying FAVAR," CEPR Discussion Papers 8341, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Anella Munro, 2014. "Exchange rates, expected returns and risk," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2014/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  8. Moons, Cindy, 2009. "An Estimated Two-Country DSGE Model: losses from UK membership in EMU," Working Papers 2009/23, Hogeschool-Universiteit Brussel, Faculteit Economie en Management.
  9. P. Jacob & G. Peersman, 2008. "Dissecting the Dynamics of the US Trade Balance in an Estimated Equilibrium Model," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 08/544, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
  10. P. Jacob, 2010. "Disaggregating Real Exchange Rate Dynamics: A Structural Approach," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 10/655, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.

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