Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

The identification of the sources of current account fluctuations in Ukraine

Contents:

Author Info

  • Nikolaychuk Sergiy

    ()

  • Shapovalenko Nadiia

    ()

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    This paper studies the sources of current account fluctuations in Ukraine. We apply astructural VAR approach to estimate the effects of the following shocks: supply anddemand shocks, nominal shocks and terms-of-trade shocks. For identificationpurposes we impose sign restrictions on the impulse response functions. Theserestrictions are determined on the basis of macroeconomic theory and the results ofprevious papers on related topics. We use the estimated structural shocks tohistorically decompose the trade balance into fundamental factors. The results areconsistent with the predictions of a wide set of open-economy models: (1) the tradebalance in Ukraine is mostly driven by demand and terms-of-trade shocks, (2) a surgein demand caused by changes in fiscal policy and/or in preferences of economicagents leads to a significant deterioration of the trade balance, (3) a persistent adverseterms-of-trade shock is found to have a negative long-run effect on the trade balance(in line with the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect), (4) nominal shocks have a muchsmaller effect on the trade balance. In addition, some evidence of J-curve effect is found.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://eerc.ru/default/download/creater/working_papers/file/279f145d68509801b4217c818883bd13adc442df.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS in its series EERC Working Paper Series with number 13/12e.

    as in new window
    Length:
    Date of creation: 14 Oct 2013
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:eer:wpalle:13/12e

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS, 1, Mazepy Str., suite 202, Kyiv, 01010 Ukraine
    Phone: +38(044)492-8012
    Fax: +1(202)478-1968
    Web page: http://www.eerc.ru

    Order Information:
    Postal: EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS, 1, Mazepy Str., suite 202, Kyiv, 01010 Ukraine
    Email:
    Web: https://eerc.ru/paper

    Related research

    Keywords:

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Fratzscher, Marcel & Straub, Roland, 2009. "Asset prices and current account fluctuations in G7 economies," Working Paper Series 1014, European Central Bank.
    2. Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1981. "The Current Account and macroeconomic Adjustment in the 1970s," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(1), pages 201-282.
    3. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Renee Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2007. "Some Issues in Using Sign Restrictions for Identifying Structural VARs," NCER Working Paper Series 14, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    5. Maurice Obstfeld, 1981. "Aggregate Spending and the Terms of Trade: Is There a Laursen-Metzler Effect?," NBER Working Papers 0686, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
    7. Polterovich, Victor & Popov, Vladimir, 2003. "Accumulation of Foreign Exchange Reserves and Long Term Growth," MPRA Paper 20069, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. José García-Solanes & Jesús Rodríguez-López & José Torres, 2011. "Demand Shocks and Trade Balance Dynamics," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 739-766, September.
    9. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2007. "Current account balances, financial development and institutions: Assaying the world "saving glut"," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 546-569, June.
    10. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Dedola, Luca & Leduc, Sylvain, 2006. "Productivity, External Balance and Exchange Rates: Evidence on the Transmission Mechanism among G7 Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 5853, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Artatrana Ratha, 2004. "The J-Curve: a literature review," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(13), pages 1377-1398.
    12. Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March.
    13. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1992. "Dynamics of the trade balance and the terms of trade: the S-curve," Working Paper 9211, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    14. Otto, G., 2003. "Terms of trade shocks and the balance of trade: there is a Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 155-184, April.
    15. Fratzscher, Marcel & Straub, Roland, 2010. "Asset Prices, News Shocks and the Current Account," CEPR Discussion Papers 8080, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ali Kutan, 2009. "The J-curve in the emerging economies of Eastern Europe," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(20), pages 2523-2532.
    17. Engel, C., 1996. "Accounting for U.S. Real Exchange Rate Changes," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 96-02, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
    18. Christopher J. Erceg & Luca Guerrieri & Christopher Gust, 2006. "SIGMA: a new open economy model for policy analysis," International Finance Discussion Papers 835, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Eswar Prasad, 1999. "International Trade and the Business Cycle," IMF Working Papers 99/56, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Bussière, Matthieu & Fratzscher, Marcel & Müller, Gernot J., 2010. "Productivity shocks, budget deficits and the current account," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 1562-1579, December.
    21. Rogers, John H. & Jenkins, Michael, 1995. "Haircuts or hysteresis? Sources of movements in real exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 339-360, May.
    22. Gali, Jordi, 1992. "How Well Does the IS-LM Model Fit Postwar U.S. Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 709-38, May.
    23. Zhang, Yin & Wan, Guanghua, 2004. "What Accounts for China's Trade Balance Dynamics?," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    24. Parsley, David C & Wei, Shang-Jin, 1993. "Insignificant and Inconsequential Hysteresis: The Case of U.S. Bilateral Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 606-13, November.
    25. Chinn, Menzie D. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2003. "Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: an empirical exploration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 47-76, January.
    26. Busch, Ulrike & Scharnagl, Michael & Scheithauer, Jan, 2010. "Loan supply in Germany during the financial crisis," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2010,05, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
    27. Ren�e Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2011. "Sign Restrictions in Structural Vector Autoregressions: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 938-60, December.
    28. Fabio Canova & Luca Gambetti & Evi Pappa, 2007. "The Structural Dynamics of Output Growth and Inflation: Some International Evidence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(519), pages C167-C191, 03.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eer:wpalle:13/12e. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Anton Pashchenko).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.