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Oil and the macroeconomy: a quantitative structural analysis

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  • Francesco Lippi

    ()
    (University of Sassari, EIEF and CEPR)

  • Andrea Nobili

    ()
    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

We consider an economy in which the oil costs, industrial production, and other macroeconomic variables fluctuate in response to fundamental domestic and external demand and supply shocks. We estimate the effects of these structural shocks on US monthly data for the 1973.1-2007.12 period using robust sign restrictions suggested by theory. The interplay between the oil market and the US economy goes in both directions. About 20% of changes in the cost of oil come in response to US aggregate demand shocks, while shocks originating in the oil market also affect the US economy, the impact depending on the nature of the shock: a negative oil supply shock reduces US output, whereas a positive oil demand shock has a positive and persistent effect on GDP.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area in its series Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) with number 704.

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Date of creation: Mar 2009
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Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_704_09

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Keywords: Business cycle; Oil prices; Structural VAR;

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