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Oil and the Great Moderation

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Author Info
Anton Nakov
Andrea Pescatori

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Abstract

We assess the extent to which the period of great U.S. macroeconomic stability since the mid-1980s can be accounted for by changes in oil shocks and the oil share in GDP. To do this we estimate a DSGE model with an oil-producing sector before and after 1984 and perform counterfactual simulations. We nest two popular explanations for the Great Moderation: (1) smaller (non-oil) real shocks; and (2) better monetary policy. We find that the reduced oil share accounted for as much as one-third of the inflation moderation and 13% of the growth moderation, while smaller oil shocks accounted for 11% of the inflation moderation and 7% of the growth moderation. This notwithstanding, better monetary policy explains the bulk of the inflation moderation, while most of the growth moderation is explained by smaller TFP shocks.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland in its series Working Paper with number 0717.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwp:0717

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Keywords: Monetary policy ; Petroleum products - Prices ; Business cycles;

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  20. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Waston, Mark, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Working Papers 97-25, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
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  23. Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2001. "Do We Really Know that Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative," NBER Working Papers 8389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Anton Nakov & Andrea Pescatori, 2007. "Inflation-output gap trade-off with a dominant oil supplier," Working Paper 0710, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Rajeev Dhawan & Karsten Jeske & Pedro Silos, . "Productivity, Energy Prices and the Great Moderation: A New Link," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Fabio Milani, 2009. "Expectations, Learning, and the Changing Relationship between Oil Prices and the Macroeconomy," Working Papers 080923, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Francesco Lippi & Andrea Nobili, 2009. "Oil and the macroeconomy: a quantitative structural analysis," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 704, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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