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Understanding the Large Negative Impact of Oil Shocks

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Author Info
LUÍS AGUIAR-CONRARIA
YI WEN

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Abstract

This paper offers a plausible explanation for the close link between oil prices and aggregate macroeconomic performance in the 1970s. Although this link has been well documented in the empirical literature, standard economic models are not able to replicate this link when actual oil prices are used to simulate the models. In particular, standard models cannot explain the depth of the recession in 1974-75 and the strong revival in 1976-78 based on the oil price movements in that period. This paper argues that a missing multiplier-accelerator mechanism from standard models may hold the key. Copyright 2007 The Ohio State University.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1538-4616.2007.00051.x
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 39 (2007)
Issue (Month): 4 (06)
Pages: 925-944
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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:39:y:2007:i:4:p:925-944

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Kim, In-Moo & Loungani, Prakash, 1992. "The role of energy in real business cycle models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 173-189, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Loungani, Prakash, 1986. "Oil Price Shocks and the Dispersion Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(3), pages 536-39, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Benhabib Jess & Farmer Roger E. A., 1994. "Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 19-41, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Aguiar-Conraria, Luis & Wen, Yi, 2004. "Foreign Trade and Equilibrium Indeterminacy," Working Papers 04-09, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 215-220, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Burbidge, John & Harrison, Alan, 1984. "Testing for the Effects of Oil-Price Rises Using Vector Autoregressions," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(2), pages 459-84, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Hamilton, James D & Herrera, Ana Maria, 2004. "Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy: Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 265-86, April.
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  14. Tatom, John A., 1988. "Are the macroeconomic effects of oil-price changes symmetric?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 325-368, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. James D. Hamilton, 1985. "Historical Causes of Postwar Oil Shocks and Recessions," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 97-116.
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  17. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-17, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Bernanke, Ben S. & Gertler, Mark & Waston, Mark, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Working Papers 97-25, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
  19. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Hooker, Mark A., 1996. "What happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 195-213, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2001. "Do We Really Know that Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative," NBER Working Papers 8389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  22. Laitner, John & Stolyarov, Dmitriy, 2004. "Aggregate returns to scale and embodied technical change: theory and measurement using stock market data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 191-233, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Wen, Yi, 1998. "Capacity Utilization under Increasing Returns to Scale," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 7-36, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Rasche, Robert H. & Tatom, John A., 1981. "Energy price shocks, aggregate supply and monetary policy: The theory and the international evidence," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 9-93, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Hamilton, James D., 2003. "What is an oil shock?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 363-398, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  27. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Yi Wen & Huabin Wu, 2008. "Dynamics of externalities: a second-order perspective," Working Papers 2008-044, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  2. Anna Kormilitsina, 2009. "Oil Price Shocks and the Optimality of Monetary Policy," Departmental Working Papers 0901, Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  3. Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2007. "Endogenous volatility, endogenous growth, and large welfare gains from stabilization policies," Working Papers 2006-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  4. Kevin L. Kliesen, 2008. "Oil and the U.S. macroeconomy: an update and a simple forecasting exercise," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 505-516. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Luís Francisco Aguiar-Conraria & Maria Joana Soares, 2007. "Using cross-wavelets to decompose the time-frequency relation between oil and the macroeconomy," NIPE Working Papers 16/2007, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
  6. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Yi Wen, 2007. "A note on oil dependence and economic instability," Working Papers 2006-060, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Feng Guo & Hung-Gay Fung & Ying Huang, 2009. "The Dynamic Impact of Macro Shocks on Insurance Premiums," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 225-244, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Munechika Katayama, . "Declining Effects of Oil-Price Shocks," Departmental Working Papers 2009-02, Department of Economics, Louisiana State University. [Downloadable!]
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