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Foreign Trade and Equilibrium Indeterminacy

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Author Info
Luís Francisco Aguiar-Conraria () (Universidade do Minho - NIPE)
Yi Wen (Department of Economics - Cornell University)

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Abstract

We show that dependence of production on foreign inputs (or non-producible natural resources) can significantly increase the likelihood of indeterminacy. Payment of imported foreign factors of production may act as a semi-fixed cost, amplifying production externalities and returns to scale, making selffulfilling expectations driven busyness cycles easier to arise. This is demonstrated using a standard neoclassical growth model. Calibration exercise shows that the required increasing returns to scale can be reduced by as much as 64% based on estimated share of foreign inputs in production for OECD countries.

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Paper provided by NIPE - Universidade do Minho in its series NIPE Working Papers with number 5/2004.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:nip:nipewp:5/2004

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Related research
Keywords: Indeterminacy; Factor Imports; Natural Resources; Capacity Utilization; Externality; Returns to Scale; Open Economy; Sunspots; Self- Fulfilling Expectations.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Jess Benhabib & Qinglai Meng & Kazuo Nishimura, 2000. "Indeterminacy under Constant Returns to Scale in Multisector Economies," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1541-1548, November.
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  2. Benhabib Jess & Farmer Roger E. A., 1994. "Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 19-41, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Benhabib, Jess & Farmer, Roger E.A., 1996. "Indeterminacy and Sector-Specific Externalities," Working Papers 96-12, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Azariadis, Costas & Guesnerie, Roger, 1986. "Sunspots and Cycles," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(5), pages 725-37, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Woodford, Michael, 1986. "Stationary sunspot equilibria in a finance constrained economy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 128-137, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Benhabib, Jess & Nishimura, Kazuo, 1998. "Indeterminacy and Sunspots with Constant Returns," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 58-96, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Michael Woodford, 1990. "Self-Fulfilling Expectations and Fluctuations in Aggregate Demand," NBER Working Papers 3361, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Bennett, R.L. & Farmer, R.E.A., 1999. "Indeterminacy with Non-Separable Utility," Economics Working Papers eco99/34, European University Institute.
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  9. Cass, David & Shell, Karl, 1983. "Do Sunspots Matter?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 193-227, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Azariadis, Costas, 1981. "Self-fulfilling prophecies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 380-396, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Weder, Mark, 2001. "Indeterminacy in a Small Open Economy Ramsey Growth Model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 339-356, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Wen, Yi, 2001. "Understanding self-fulfilling rational expectations equilibria in real business cycle models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 1221-1240, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Benhabib, Jess & Wen, Yi, 2004. "Indeterminacy, aggregate demand, and the real business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 503-530, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Meng, Qinglai, 2003. "Multiple transitional growth paths in endogenously growing open economies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 365-376, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie, 1997. "Comparing Four Models of Aggregate Fluctuations due to Self-Fulfilling Expectations," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 96-147, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Weder, Mark, 1998. "Fickle Consumers, Durable Goods, and Business Cycles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 37-57, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Qinglai Meng & Andrés Velasco, 2003. "Indeterminacy in a small open economy with endogenous labor supply," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 661-669, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Farmer Roger E. A. & Guo Jang-Ting, 1994. "Real Business Cycles and the Animal Spirits Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 42-72, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Wen, Yi, 1998. "Capacity Utilization under Increasing Returns to Scale," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 7-36, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Perli, Roberto, 1998. "Indeterminacy, home production, and the business cycle: A calibrated analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 105-125, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Mino, Kazuo, 2008. "Financial integration and volatility in a two-country world," MPRA Paper 16953, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Chen, Yan & Zhang, Yan, 2008. "Tariff Policy, Increasing Returns and Endogenous Fluctuations," MPRA Paper 10019, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  3. Luis Aguiar-Conraria & Yi Wen, 2006. "Understanding the large negative impact of oil shocks," Working Papers 2005-042, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Kazuo Mino, 2008. "Preference Structure and Volatility in a Financially Integrated World," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 08-05, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP). [Downloadable!]
  5. Aguiar-Conraria, Luis & Wen, Yi, 2005. "Understanding the Impact of Oil Shocks," Working Papers 05-01, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Yi Wen, 2007. "A note on oil dependence and economic instability," Working Papers 2006-060, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Zhang, Yan & Chen, Yan, 2008. "Tariff and Equilibrium Indeterminacy--A Note," MPRA Paper 10044, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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