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The Economic Consequences of a War with Iraq

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Abstract

Much has been written about the national-security aspects of a potential conflict in Iraq, but there are no studies of the cost. A review of several past wars indicates that nations historically have consistently underestimated the cost of military conflicts. This study reviews the potential costs of a conflict including the postwar expenses that might be required for occupation, humanitarian assistance, reconstruction, nation-building, along with the implications for oil markets and macroeconomic activity. It considers two potential scenarios that span the potential outcomes, ranging from a short and relatively conflict-free case to protracted conflict with difficult and expensive postwar reconstruction and occupation. The estimates of the cost to the United States over the decade following hostilities range from $100 billion to $1.9 trillion.

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File URL: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cd/d13b/d1387.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1387.

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Length: 51 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2002
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1387

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Keywords: Oil; Defense spending; War; Iraq;

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Cited by:
  1. Ryan D. Edwards, 2010. "U.S. War Costs: Two Parts Temporary, One Part Permanent," NBER Working Papers 16108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Aguiar-Conraria, Luis & Wen, Yi, 2005. "Understanding the Impact of Oil Shocks," Working Papers 05-01, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
  3. Jordi Pons & Ramon Tremosa-i-Balcells, 2003. "Macroeconomic Effects of Catalan Fiscal Deficit with the Spanish State (2002-2010) (?)," ERSA conference papers ersa03p128, European Regional Science Association.
  4. Tilman Brück, 2004. "An Economic Analysis of Security Policies," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 456, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  5. Ben-Gad, M. & Ben-Haim, Y. & Peled, D., 2008. "Allocating Security Expenditures under Knightian Uncertainty: an Info-Gap Approach," Working Papers 08/05, Department of Economics, City University London.
  6. Benner, Joachim & Borbély, Dóra & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Kamps, Christophe & Kamps, Annette & Sander, Birgit & Scheide, Joachim, 2003. "Durchgreifende Erholung der Weltkonjunktur nochmals verzögert," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 2983, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  7. Steven J. Davis & Kevin M. Murphy & Robert H. Topel, 2006. "War in Iraq versus Containment," NBER Working Papers 12092, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2003. "The effects of war risk on U.S. financial markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-18, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Olaf J. de Groot & Tilman Brück & Carlos Bozzoli, 2009. "How Many Bucks in a Bang: On the Estimation of the Economic Costs of Conflict," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 948, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  10. Amihud, Yakov & Wohl, Avi, 2004. "Political news and stock prices: The case of Saddam Hussein contracts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 1185-1200, May.
  11. Bodea, Cristina & Elbadawi, Ibrahim A., 2008. "Political violence and economic growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4692, The World Bank.
  12. Luis Aguiar-Conraria & Yi Wen, 2006. "Understanding the large negative impact of oil shocks," Working Papers 2005-042, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  13. Rose Adam Z. & Blomberg S. Brock, 2010. "Total Economic Consequences of Terrorist Attacks: Insights from 9/11," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 1-14, June.
  14. Elena Corallo, 2007. "The effect of the war risk: a comparison of the consequences of the two Iraq wars," International Review of Economics, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 371-382, September.

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