The Economic Consequences of a War with Iraq
AbstractMuch has been written about the national-security aspects of a potential conflict in Iraq, but there are no studies of the cost. A review of several past wars indicates that nations historically have consistently underestimated the cost of military conflicts. This study reviews the potential costs of a conflict including the postwar expenses that might be required for occupation, humanitarian assistance, reconstruction, nation-building, along with the implications for oil markets and macroeconomic activity. It considers two potential scenarios that span the potential outcomes, ranging from a short and relatively conflict-free case to protracted conflict with difficult and expensive postwar reconstruction and occupation. The estimates of the cost to the United States over the decade following hostilities range from $100 billion to $1.9 trillion.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1387.
Length: 51 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2002
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA
Phone: (203) 432-3702
Fax: (203) 432-6167
Web page: http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/
More information through EDIRC
Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
- H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
- Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2003-02-03 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENE-2003-02-03 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-HIS-2003-02-03 (Business, Economic & Financial History)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Ryan D. Edwards, 2010.
"U.S. War Costs: Two Parts Temporary, One Part Permanent,"
NBER Working Papers
16108, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Edwards, Ryan D., 2014. "U.S. war costs: Two parts temporary, one part permanent," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 54-66.
- Aguiar-Conraria, Luis & Wen, Yi, 2005.
"Understanding the Impact of Oil Shocks,"
05-01, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
- Jordi Pons & Ramon Tremosa-i-Balcells, 2003.
"Macroeconomic Effects of Catalan Fiscal Deficit with the Spanish State (2002-2010) (?),"
ERSA conference papers
ersa03p128, European Regional Science Association.
- Jordi Pons-i-Novell & Ramon Tremosa-i-Balcells, 2005. "Macroeconomic effects of Catalan fiscal deficit with the Spanish state (2002-2010)," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(13), pages 1455-1463.
- Tilman Brück, 2004.
"An Economic Analysis of Security Policies,"
Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin
456, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Ben-Gad, M. & Ben-Haim, Y. & Peled, D., 2008. "Allocating Security Expenditures under Knightian Uncertainty: an Info-Gap Approach," Working Papers 08/05, Department of Economics, City University London.
- Benner, Joachim & Borbély, Dóra & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Kamps, Christophe & Kamps, Annette & Sander, Birgit & Scheide, Joachim, 2003. "Durchgreifende Erholung der Weltkonjunktur nochmals verzögert," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 2983, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
- Steven J. Davis & Kevin M. Murphy & Robert H. Topel, 2006. "War in Iraq versus Containment," NBER Working Papers 12092, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2003.
"The effects of war risk on U.S. financial markets,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2003-18, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2003. "The Effects of War Risk on U.S. Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 9609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rigobon, Roberto & Sack, Brian P., 2003. "The Effects of War Risk on U.S. Financial Markets," Working papers 4417-03, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Olaf J. de Groot & Tilman Brück & Carlos Bozzoli, 2009.
"How Many Bucks in a Bang: On the Estimation of the Economic Costs of Conflict,"
Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin
948, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Olaf J. de Groot & Tilman Brück & Carlos Bozzoli, 2009. "How Many Bucks in a Bang: On the Estimation of the Economic Costs of Conflict," Economics of Security Working Paper Series 21, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Amihud, Yakov & Wohl, Avi, 2004. "Political news and stock prices: The case of Saddam Hussein contracts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 1185-1200, May.
- Bodea, Cristina & Elbadawi, Ibrahim A., 2008. "Political violence and economic growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4692, The World Bank.
- Luis Aguiar-Conraria & Yi Wen, 2006.
"Understanding the large negative impact of oil shocks,"
2005-042, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Yi Wen, 2007. "Understanding the Large Negative Impact of Oil Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(4), pages 925-944, 06.
- Rose Adam Z. & Blomberg S. Brock, 2010. "Total Economic Consequences of Terrorist Attacks: Insights from 9/11," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 1-14, June.
- Elena Corallo, 2007. "The effect of the war risk: a comparison of the consequences of the two Iraq wars," International Review of Economics, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 371-382, September.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Glena Ames).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.