The Economic Consequences of a War with Iraq
AbstractMuch has been written about the national-security aspects of a potential conflict in Iraq, but there are no studies of the cost. A review of several past wars indicates that nations historically have consistently underestimated the cost of military conflicts. This study reviews the potential costs of a conflict including the postwar expenses that might be required for occupation, humanitarian assistance, reconstruction, nation-building, along with the implications for oil markets and macroeconomic activity. It considers two potential scenarios that span the potential outcomes, ranging from a short and relatively conflict-free case to protracted conflict with difficult and expensive postwar reconstruction and occupation. The estimates of the cost to the United States over the decade following hostilities range from $100 billion to $1.9 trillion.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University in its series Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers with number 1387.
Length: 51 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2002
Date of revision:
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Postal: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, Box 208281, New Haven, CT 06520-8281 USA
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
- H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
- Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2003-02-03 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENE-2003-02-03 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-HIS-2003-02-03 (Business, Economic & Financial History)
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