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A Note On Oil Dependence And Economic Instability

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Author Info
Aguiar-Conraria, Lu?s
Wen, Yi

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Abstract

We show that dependence on foreign energy can increase economic instability by raising the likelihood of equilibrium indeterminacy, hence making it easier for fluctuations driven by self-fulfilling expectations to occur. This is demonstrated in a standard neoclassical growth model. Calibration exercises, based on the estimated share of imported energy in production for several countries, show that the degree of reliance on foreign energy for many countries can easily make an otherwise determinate and stable economy indeterminate and unstable.

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File URL: http://journals.cambridge.org/abstract_S1365100508070429
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Cambridge University Press in its journal Macroeconomic Dynamics.

Volume (Year): 12 (2008)
Issue (Month): 05 (November)
Pages: 717-723
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:12:y:2008:i:05:p:717-723_07

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  24. Wen, Yi, 2001. "Understanding self-fulfilling rational expectations equilibria in real business cycle models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 1221-1240, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  31. Luis Aguiar-Conraria & Yi Wen, 2006. "Understanding the large negative impact of oil shocks," Working Papers 2005-042, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  32. Wen, Yi, 1998. "Capacity Utilization under Increasing Returns to Scale," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 7-36, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Zhang, Yan, 2009. "Tariff and Equilibrium Indeterminacy," MPRA Paper 13099, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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