Historical Causes of Postwar Oil Shocks and Recessions

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Historical Causes of Postwar Oil Shocks and Recessions

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James D. Hamilton

Abstract

Turbulent petroleum markets and poor economic performance have been making headlines for the last decade. Three major oil shocks (1973-1974, 1979, and 1980-1981) have each been followed by major recessions. While the magnitude and violence of recent oil price changes are unique in postwar experience, the phenomenon of political instability producing disruptions in petroleum supply is not. Hamilton (1983a) observed that all but one of the recessions in the United States since World War II were preceded-typically by about nine months-by a dramatic increase in the price of crude petroleum (see Figure 1).

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Publisher Info
Article provided by International Association for Energy Economics in its journal The Energy Journal.

Volume (Year): 6 (1985)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 97-116
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Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:1985v06-01-a09

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Luis Aguiar-Conraria & Yi Wen, 2006. "Understanding the large negative impact of oil shocks," Working Papers 2005-042, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Yi Wen, 2007. "Understanding the Large Negative Impact of Oil Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(4), pages 925-944, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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- Ramey, Valerie A. & Shapiro, Matthew D., 1998. "Costly capital reallocation and the effects of government spending," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 145-194, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Aguiar-Conraria, Luis & Wen, Yi, 2005. "Understanding the Impact of Oil Shocks," Working Papers 05-01, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Luís Francisco Aguiar-Conraria & Yi Wen, 2005. "Understanding the Impact of Oil Shocks," NIPE Working Papers 2/2005, NIPE - Universidade do Minho. [Downloadable!]
Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2001. "Do We Really Know that Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative," NBER Working Papers 8389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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- Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2002. "Do We Really Know that Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 137-198 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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- Sylvain Leduc & Keith Sill, 2006. "Monetary policy, oil shocks, and TFP: accounting for the decline in U.S. volatility," International Finance Discussion Papers 873, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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James D. Hamilton, 2000. "What is an Oil Shock?," NBER Working Papers 7755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Gary Gorton & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2004. "Facts and Fantasies about Commodity Futures," NBER Working Papers 10595, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Marc D. Weidenmier & Joseph H. Davis & Roger Aliaga-Diaz, 2008. "Is Sugar Sweeter at the Pump? The Macroeconomic Impact of Brazil's Alternative Energy Program," NBER Working Papers 14362, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Kline, Patrick, 2008. "Understanding Sectoral Labor Market Dynamics: An Equilibrium Analysis of the Oil and Gas Field Services Industry," Working Papers 43, Yale University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
Frode Brevik & Axel Kind, 2004. "What is going on in the oil market?," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 442-457, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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