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The Effects of Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks on Output and Inflation: Evidence from the G7 Countries

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  • Kilian, Lutz

Abstract

Using state-of-the-art methods, this study estimates and compares the effects of exogenous shocks to global oil production on seven major industrialized economies. The main findings are: (1) There is a fair degree of similarity in the real growth responses. An exogenous oil supply disruption typically causes a temporary reduction in real GDP growth that is concentrated in the second year after the shock. (2) Inflation responses are more varied. The median CPI inflation response peaks after three to four quarters. There is clear evidence that exogenous oil supply disruptions need not generate sustained consumer price inflation. Evidence of sustained inflation (as in the case of Germany) therefore must reflect a favorable institutional environment. (3) The evidence of stagflationary responses is strongest for Germany, Japan and Canada, whereas for the US, the UK and Italy there is little or no evidence of stagflationary responses to oil supply shocks. (4) As measured by cumulative inflation and real growth responses, some countries such as Italy, France and Japan have fared well when faced with exogenous oil supply disruptions, whereas others such as Germany have not. (5) A counterfactual historical exercise suggests that the evolution of CPI inflation in the G7 countries would have been similar overall to the actual path even in the absence of exogenous shocks to oil production, consistent with a monetary explanation of inflation. There is no evidence that the 1973/74 and 2002/03 oil supply shocks had a substantial impact on real growth in any G7 country, but for some G7 countries the 1978/79, 1980, and 1990/91 shocks had some impact.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 5404.

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Date of creation: Dec 2005
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5404

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Keywords: counterfactual; dynamic effects; exogeneity; inflation; oil supply; real GDP growth and stagflation;

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References

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  1. James D. Hamilton, 2000. "What is an Oil Shock?," NBER Working Papers 7755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Cologni, Alessandro & Manera, Matteo, 2008. "Oil prices, inflation and interest rates in a structural cointegrated VAR model for the G-7 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 856-888, May.
  2. M. Angeles Caraballo & Carlos Usabiaga, 2009. "The relevance of supply shocks for inflation: the spanish case," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(6), pages 753-764.
  3. Svetlana Maslyuk & Russell Smyth, 2007. "Non-Linear Unit Root Properties of Crude Oil Production," Development Research Unit Working Paper Series 39-07, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  4. Lutz Kilian, 2010. "Oil Price Shocks, Monetary Policy and Stagflation," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.), Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks Reserve Bank of Australia.
  5. Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez, 2007. "The industrial impact of oil price shocks: Evidence from the industries of six OECD countries," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0731, Banco de Espa�a.
  6. Maslyuk, Svetlana & Smyth, Russell, 2008. "Unit root properties of crude oil spot and futures prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2591-2600, July.
  7. Toshitaka Sekine, 2009. "Another look at global disinflation," BIS Working Papers 283, Bank for International Settlements.
  8. Kilian, Lutz & Lewis, Logan, 2009. "Does the Fed Respond to Oil Price Shocks?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7594, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Anton Nakov & Andrea Pescatori, 2007. "Oil and the Great Moderation," Working Paper 0717, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  10. Anton Nakov & Andrea Pescatori, 2007. "Inflation-output gap trade-off with a dominant oil supplier," Working Paper 0710, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  11. Lutz Kilian, 2006. "Understanding the effects of exogenous oil supply shocks," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 7(2), pages 21-27, 07.
  12. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Smyth, Russell, 2008. "Are oil shocks permanent or temporary? Panel data evidence from crude oil and NGL production in 60 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 919-936, May.

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