Loan supply in Germany during the financial crisis
AbstractDistinguishing pure supply effects from other determinants of price and quantity in the market for loans is a notoriously difficult problem. Using German data, we employ Bayesian vector autoregressive models with sign restrictions on the impulse response functions in order to enquire the role of loan supply and monetary policy shocks for the dynamics of loans to non-financial corporations. For the three quarters following the Lehman collapse, we find very strong negative loan supply shocks, while monetary policy was essentially neutral. Nevertheless, the historical decomposition shows a cumulated negative impact of loan supply shocks and monetary policy shocks on loans to non-financial corporations, due to the lagged effects of past loan supply and monetary policy shocks. However, these negative effects on loans to non-financial corporations are overcompensated by positive other shocks, which implies that loans developed more favorably than implied by the model, over the past few quarters. --
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies with number 2010,05.
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
Loan supply; Bayesian VAR; sign restrictions;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-05-22 (All new papers)
- NEP-BAN-2010-05-22 (Banking)
- NEP-CBA-2010-05-22 (Central Banking)
- NEP-FMK-2010-05-22 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-MON-2010-05-22 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Daniel Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2006.
"Markov-Switching Structural Vector Autoregressions: Theory and Application,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 2006
69, Society for Computational Economics.
- Juan Francisco Rubio-Ramírez & Daniel Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2005. "Markov-switching structural vector autoregressions: theory and application," Working Paper 2005-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Kadiyala, K Rao & Karlsson, Sune, 1997.
"Numerical Methods for Estimation and Inference in Bayesian VAR-Models,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 99-132, March-Apr.
- G. Peersman, 2004.
"What caused the early millennium slowdown? Evidence based on vector autoregressions,"
Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium
04/235, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
- Gert Peersman, 2005. "What caused the early millennium slowdown? Evidence based on vector autoregressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 185-207.
- Gert Peersman, 2005. "What caused the early millennium slowdown? Evidence based on vector autoregressions," Bank of England working papers 272, Bank of England.
- Peersman, Gert, 2003. "What Caused the Early Millennium Slowdown? Evidence Based on Vector Autoregressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 4087, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(2), pages 1-78.
- Hristov, Nikolay & Hülsewig, Oliver & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2012.
"Loan supply shocks during the financial crisis: Evidence for the Euro area,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 569-592.
- Nikolay Hristov & Oliver Hülsewig & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2011. "Loan Supply Shocks during the Financial Crisis: Evidence for the Euro Area," CESifo Working Paper Series 3395, CESifo Group Munich.
- Nikolaychuk Sergiy & Shapovalenko Nadiia, 2013. "The identification of the sources of current account fluctuations in Ukraine," EERC Working Paper Series 13/12e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
- Gambetti, Luca & Musso, Alberto, 2012. "Loan supply shocks and the business cycle," Working Paper Series 1469, European Central Bank.
- Ncube, Mthuli & Eliphas Ndou, 2013. "Working Paper 169 - Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Shocks on South African Trade Balance," Working Paper Series 448, African Development Bank.
- Torsten Schmidt & Lina Zwick, 2012. "In Search for a Credit Crunch in Germany," Ruhr Economic Papers 0361, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.