Loan supply in Germany during the financial crisis
AbstractDistinguishing pure supply effects from other determinants of price and quantity in the market for loans is a notoriously difficult problem. Using German data, we employ Bayesian vector autoregressive models with sign restrictions on the impulse response functions in order to enquire the role of loan supply and monetary policy shocks for the dynamics of loans to non-financial corporations. For the three quarters following the Lehman collapse, we find very strong negative loan supply shocks, while monetary policy was essentially neutral. Nevertheless, the historical decomposition shows a cumulated negative impact of loan supply shocks and monetary policy shocks on loans to non-financial corporations, due to the lagged effects of past loan supply and monetary policy shocks. However, these negative effects on loans to non-financial corporations are overcompensated by positive other shocks, which implies that loans developed more favorably than implied by the model, over the past few quarters. --
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre in its series Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies with number 2010,05.
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
Loan supply; Bayesian VAR; sign restrictions;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-05-22 (All new papers)
- NEP-BAN-2010-05-22 (Banking)
- NEP-CBA-2010-05-22 (Central Banking)
- NEP-FMK-2010-05-22 (Financial Markets)
- NEP-MON-2010-05-22 (Monetary Economics)
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