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Business cycle measurement with some theory

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  • Fabio Canova

    ()

  • Matthias Paustian

Abstract

A method to evaluate cyclical models not requiring knowledge of the DGP and the exact specification of the aggregate decision rules is proposed. We derive robust restrictions in a class of models; use some to identify structural shocks in the data and others to evaluate the class or contrast sub-models. The approach has good properties, even in small samples, and when the class of models is misspecified. The method is used to sort out the relevance of a certain friction (the presence of rule-of-thumb consumers) in a standard class of models.

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File URL: http://www.econ.upf.edu/docs/papers/downloads/1203.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra in its series Economics Working Papers with number 1203.

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Date of creation: Nov 2007
Date of revision: Jul 2011
Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:1203

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Web page: http://www.econ.upf.edu/

Related research

Keywords: Sign restrictions; shock identification; model validation; misspecification.;

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References

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  7. Hyungsik Roger Moon & Frank Schorfheide, 2012. "Bayesian and Frequentist Inference in Partially Identified Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(2), pages 755-782, 03.
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  24. Erceg, Christopher J. & Henderson, Dale W. & Levin, Andrew T., 2000. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-313, October.
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Citations

RePEc Biblio mentions

As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
  1. > Econometrics > Time Series Models > VAR Models > Sign Restrictions
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Cited by:
  1. Hristov, Nikolay & Hülsewig, Oliver & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2012. "Loan supply shocks during the financial crisis: Evidence for the Euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 569-592.
  2. Pitschner, Stefan, 2013. "Using Financial Markets To Estimate the Macro Effects of Monetary Policy:," Working Paper Series 267, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  3. G. C. Lim & Paul D. McNelis, 2014. "Income Inequality, Trade and Financial Openness," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2014n07, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  4. Fabio Canova & Fernando J. Pérez Forero, 2012. "Estimating overidentified, nonrecursive, time-varying coefficients structural VARs," Economics Working Papers 1321, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  5. Cristiano Cantore & Miguel León-Ledesma & Peter McAdam & Alpo Willman, 2014. "Shocking Stuff: Technology, Hours, And Factor Substitution," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 108-128, 02.
  6. Fabio Fornari & Livio Stracca, 2012. "What does a financial shock do? First international evidence," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 27(71), pages 407-445, 07.
  7. Haroon Mumtaz & Gabor Pinter & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2014. "What do VARs Tell Us about the Impact of a Credit Supply Shock? An Empirical Analysis," Working Papers 716, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  8. Christiane Baumeister & Luca Benati, 2012. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Great Recession: Estimating the Macroeconomic Effects of a Spread Compression at the Zero Lower Bound," Working Papers 12-21, Bank of Canada.
  9. Eddie Gerba & Klemens Hauzenberger, 2013. "Estimating US Fiscal and Monetary Interactions in a Time Varying VAR," Studies in Economics 1303, Department of Economics, University of Kent.
  10. Amir-Ahmadi, Pooyan & Matthes, Christian & Wang, Mu-Chun, 2014. "Drifts, Volatilities, and Impulse Responses Over the Last Century," Working Paper 14-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

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