Insignificant and Inconsequential Hysteresis: The Case of U.S. Bilateral Trade
AbstractThis paper casts doubt on the validity of the hysteresis hypothesis as an explanation of the persistent U.S. trade deficits in the 1980s. The authors propose two tests to investigate two different implications of the hypothesis. The first implication is that cumulative changes in exchange rates, in addition to current exchange rate levels, are important determinants of trade flows. The second implication is that foreign exporting firms' perceptions of exchange rate volatility will affect their decisions to enter or exit the market. The authors find little support for either aspect of the hysteresis hypothesis. Copyright 1993 by MIT Press.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by MIT Press in its journal Review of Economics & Statistics.
Volume (Year): 75 (1993)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://mitpress.mit.edu/journals/
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Chung, Chris Changwha & Beamish, Paul W., 2005. "Investment mode strategy and expatriate strategy during times of economic crisis," Journal of International Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 331-355, September.
- Campa, Jose Manuel, 2004.
"Exchange rates and trade: How important is hysteresis in trade?,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 527-548, June.
- Campa, Jose M., 2000. "Exchange rates and trade: How important is hysteresis in trade?," IESE Research Papers D/427, IESE Business School.
- Campa, José Manuel, 2000. "Exchange Rates and Trade: How Important is Hysteresis in Trade?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2606, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- I. Agur, 2003. "Trade-volume hysteresis: an investigation using aggregate data," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 740, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
- Ansgar Belke & Matthias Göcke, 2005.
"Real Options Effects on Employment: Does Exchange Rate Uncertainty Matter for Aggregation?,"
German Economic Review,
Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 6(2), pages 185-203, 05.
- Belke, Ansgar & Göcke, Matthias, 2004. "Real Options Effects on Employment: Does Exchange Rate Uncertainty Matter for Aggregation?," IZA Discussion Papers 1126, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Ansgar Belke & Matthias Göcke & Martin Guenther, 2012.
"Exchange Rate Bands of Inaction and Play-Hysteresis in German Exports – Sectoral Evidence for Some OECD Destinations,"
Ruhr Economic Papers
0327, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
- Ansgar Belke & Matthias Göcke & Martin Günther, 2013. "Exchange Rate Bands Of Inaction And Play-Hysteresis In German Exports—Sectoral Evidence For Some Oecd Destinations," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(1), pages 152-179, 02.
- Ansgar Belke & Matthias Göcke & Martin Günther, 2012. "Exchange Rate Bands of Inaction and Play-Hysteresis in German Exports: Sectoral Evidence for Some OECD Destinations," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1203, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Belke, Ansgar & Göcke, Matthias & Guenther, Martin, 2009.
"When does it hurt? The exchange rate "pain threshold" for German exports,"
45, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Center for international Development and Environmental Research (ZEU).
- Ansgar Belke & Matthias Göcke & Martin Günther, 2009. "When Does It Hurt?: The Exchange Rate "Pain Threshold" for German Exports," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 943, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Ansgar Belke & Matthias Goecke & Martin Guenther, 2009. "When Does It Hurt? The Exchange Rate "Pain Threshold" for German Exports," Ruhr Economic Papers 0148, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
- Breuer, Janice Boucher & Clements, Leianne A., 2003. "The commodity composition of US-Japanese trade and the yen/dollar real exchange rate," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 307-330, August.
- Axarloglou, Kostas & Kouvelis, Panos, 2007. "Hysteresis in adjusting the ownership structure of foreign subsidiaries," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 494-506, August.
- Zhang, Yin & Wan, Guanghua, 2008. "Correcting China's trade imbalance: Monetary means will not suffice," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 505-521.
- Anderson, Michael A. & Smith, Stephen L.S., 2007. "How does history matter? Hysteresis in Canadian trade," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 279-291, December.
- Nikolaychuk Sergiy & Shapovalenko Nadiia, 2013. "The identification of the sources of current account fluctuations in Ukraine," EERC Working Paper Series 13/12e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
- Zhang, Yin & Wan, Guanghua, 2004.
"What Accounts for China's Trade Balance Dynamics?,"
Working Paper Series
UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- Matthias G�cke & Ansgar Belke, 1999. "Micro and Macro Hysteresis in Employment under Exchange Rate Uncertainty," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 722, Society for Computational Economics.
- Kannebley Jr., Sergio, 2008. "Tests for the hysteresis hypothesis in Brazilian industrialized exports: A threshold cointegration analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 171-190, March.
- David C. Parsley & Shang-Jin Wei, 1994. "Insignificant and Inconsequential Hysteresis: The Case of the U.S. Bilateral Trade," NBER Working Papers 4738, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Karie Kirkpatrick).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.