Testing Twin Deficits and Saving-Investment Nexus in Turkey
AbstractThis paper provides fresh evidence on the validity of twin deficit and the Feldstein-Horioka hypotheses for Turkey during the period of 1987-2004 using bounds testing approach to cointegration. In order to explain the main determinants of the current account deficits in the long-run, the fiscal balance and the domestic investments are used in an econometric model.The cointegration tests indicate the presence of a long-run relationship between the current account and budget deficits as well as the domestic investments during the estimation period. As a result, it is concluded that the twin deficit hypothesis and the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle are present and Turkey appeared to be integrated in the world capital market with a low degree of capital mobility as less than 1/5 of its domestic investment is financed through external funds. The augmented Granger-causality tests suggest no causality between the current account and budget deficits, both in the short-run and the long-run. The post-sample variance decompositions suggest that the domestic investments are the main cause of current deficits in the long-run. The paper also discusses the policy implications of the empirical results.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 50098.
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
twin deficits; Feldstein-Horioka hypotheses; cointegration; Turkey;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
- F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-10-02 (All new papers)
- NEP-ARA-2013-10-02 (MENA - Middle East & North Africa)
- NEP-OPM-2013-10-02 (Open Economy Macroeconomic)
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