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The demand for new housing in Turkey: an application of ARDL model

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Author Info

  • Ferda Halicioglu

Abstract

This study provides empirical estimates for new residential homes demand function in Turkey using the time series data for the period 1964–2004. An aggregate demand function for new private dwellings in Turkey is formed and is estimated using bounds testing cointegration procedure proposed by Pesaran et al. (2001) to compute the short and long-run elasticities of income and price variables. This study also implements Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) and Cumulative Sum of the Squares (CUSUMSQ) stability tests on the estimated new housing demand function. The empirical results indicate that income is the most significant variable in explaining the demand for new housing in Turkey and there exists a relatively stable new housing demand function.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Inderscience Enterprises Ltd in its journal Global Business and Economics Review.

Volume (Year): 9 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 62-74
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Handle: RePEc:ids:gbusec:v:9:y:2007:i:1:p:62-74

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Related research

Keywords: cointegration; housing demand; stability; income variables; Turkey; ARDL model;

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References

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  1. Hansen, Bruce E, 1992. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 321-35, July.
  2. Axel Börsch-Supan & Florian Heiss & Miki Seko, 2002. "Housing Demand in Germany and Japan," MEA discussion paper series 02008, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
  3. Malpezzi, Stephen & Mayo, Stephen K, 1987. "The Demand for Housing in Developing Countries: Empirical Estimates from Household Data," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 35(4), pages 687-721, July.
  4. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
  5. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  6. Phillips, Peter C B & Hansen, Bruce E, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125, January.
  7. Mayo, Stephen K., 1981. "Theory and estimation in the economics of housing demand," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 95-116, July.
  8. Polinsky, A Mitchell, 1977. "The Demand for Housing: A Study in Specification and Grouping," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(2), pages 447-61, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Coskun, Yener, 2010. "An Analysis of the Strenghts and Weaknesses of the Turkish Real Estate Market," MPRA Paper 28361, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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