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Modelling the Relationship between Whole Sale Price and Consumer Price Indices: Cointegration and Causality Analysis for India

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  • Tiwari, Aviral
  • Shahbaz, Muhammad

Abstract

In this study we attempted to analyze the static and dynamic causality between producers’ prices measured by WPI and consumers’ prices measured by CPI in the context of India. We did our analysis in the framework of time series and for analysis, we applied ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration and robustness of ARDL approach is examined through Johansen and Juselius (1990) maximum likelihood approach over the period of 1950-2009. We found the evidence of bidirectional causality between WPI and CPI in both cases i.e., in the short-run and long-run. Furthermore, outside sample forecast analysis reveals that in India, WPI leads CPI. This implies that WPI is determined by market forces and also a leading indicator of consumers’ prices and inflation. This gives an indication to the Indian policy analysts to control for factors affecting WPI in order to have control on CPI since CPI is used for indexation purposes for many wage and salary earners including government employees and hence it will be helpful in cutting down the excess government expenditure.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 27333.

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Date of creation: 14 Nov 2010
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:27333

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Keywords: CPI and WPI; Granger causality; cointegration VDs; IRFs.;

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  1. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  2. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997. "Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
  3. Johansen, S., 1991. "Determination of Cointegration Rank in the Presence of a Linear Trend," Papers 76a, Helsinki - Department of Economics.
  4. Todd E. Clark, 1995. "Do producer prices lead consumer prices?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 25-39.
  5. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  6. José Julián Sidaoui & Carlos Capistrán & Daniel Chiquiar & Manuel Ramos Francia, 2009. "A Note on the Predictive Content of PPI over CPI Inflation: The Case of Mexico," Working Papers 2009-14, Banco de México.
  7. Muhammad Shahbaz & Abu N. M. Wahid & Adnan Haider, 2010. "Empirical Psychology Between Wholesale Price And Consumer Price Indices: The Case Of Pakistan," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 55(03), pages 537-551.
  8. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Margarita Katsimi & Nikitas Pittis, 2002. "Causality Links between Consumer and Producer Prices: Some Empirical Evidence," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 68(3), pages 703-711, January.
  9. PareshKumar Narayan, 2004. "Are Output Fluctuations Transitory? New Evidence From 24 Chinese Provinces," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(4), pages 327-336, December.
  10. Colclough, William G. & Lange, Mark D., 1982. "Empirical evidence of causality from consumer to wholesale prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2-3), pages 379-384, August.
  11. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
  12. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
  13. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
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